2023 Formula 1 Drivers' Championship Predictions

Likely Winners

  1. Max Verstappen — Red Bull
    • Unlikely that Red Bull will go backwards relative to other teams in the absence of major aero or engine rule changes
    • Even if Mercedes catch up this year, Max showed in 2021 that he could go toe-to-toe with Lewis and win in equivalent machinery
  2. Lewis Hamilton — Mercedes
    • Mercedes will probably be better this year compared with 2022
    • The team still has excellent discipline and good decision-making; it's just that their car sucked
    • Lewis wants the ocho
      • So he can be the GOAT
      • So he can lay the ghost of Abu Dhabi 2021 to rest
    • Has a much better team-mate in George Russell than he did in Valteri Bottas, but that might actually be a disavantage (see below)
  3. George Russell — Mercedes
    • Somewhat unlikely, given that Lewis is still the #1 driver at Mercedes
    • Still, George is skilled and ambitious; so he might go for it if the car is fast
    • Will be interesting to see how he and Hamilton get along if the car is genuinely good and a championship is on the line — Hamilton vs. Rosberg 2.0, or has Lewis mellowed with age?
  4. Charles LeClerc — Ferrari
    • 2022 was a golden opportunity for LeClerc and he and Ferrari let it slip
    • Ferrari had an engine advantage at the beginning of the season that they squandered through a combination of LeClerc's mistakes (France) and the team's poor race-day decision-making (Monaco, Great Britain)
    • Unlikely to have a similar advantage in 2023
    • Firing Binotto was probably the wrong move — Ferrari actually achieved their objective for the season (being a contender for the World Championship), but the team was still punished for not achieving more
    • LeClerc has the talent, but he needs to stop making stupid mistakes
    • Ferrari has the talent, but the corporate side needs to stop treating team principals like football managers
    • It says a lot about how badly I think Ferrari has screwed this up that I rank both the Mercedes drivers higher, even though the 2022 Merc was an absolute travesty of a car

Dark Horses

  1. Lando Norris — McLaren
    • Has the skill
    • Probably a better driver than LeClerc
    • But will McLaren have a race-winning car this year? Unlikely
  2. Carlos Sainz — Ferrari
    • Not as fast as LeClerc on his good days
    • However, unlike LeClerc, Sainz can occasionally bully Ferrari into making a good decision from time to time
  3. Fernando Alonso — Aston Martin
    • Alonso is still very quick and very cunning
    • Maybe he'll get lucky and Aston will copy a good car this year

Lol, no

  1. Sergio Perez — Red Bull
    • Red Bull will sabotage his car before they allow him to threaten Max's dominance
  2. Pierre Gasly — Alpine
    • Pierre Gasly is like a worse Charles LeClerc
    • All the whiny bitch, and none of the speed
  3. Oscar Piastri — McLaren
    • I don't believe in fairy tales
  4. Esteban Ocon — Alpine
    • Will be too busy crashing into Pierre Gasly
  5. Lance Stroll — Aston Martin
    • Maybe if his dad buys all of Formula 1, otherwise no
  6. Yuki Tsunoda — Alpha Tauri
    • Yuki Tsunoda's best year is "next year", and will continue to be "next year" until he leaves Formula 1
  7. Nyck DeVries — Alpha Tauri
    • See: Oscar Piastri
  8. Valteri Bottas — Alpha Romeo
    • He couldn't get the championship in 5 years at Merc, do you really think he's going to get it with a Kirkland-brand Ferrari
  9. Zhou Guanyu
    • He deserves better, but Alpha is what he's got
  10. Nico Hulkenberg — Haas
    • A "safe pair of hands" doesn't win championships
  11. Kevin Magnussen — Haas
    • A mediocre driver for a mediocre team
  12. Alex Albon — Williams
    • Lol, he's driving a Williams
  13. Logan Sarjeant — Williams
    • Couldn't get even Williams to pick him as a first choice