Main.TrustMeImLying . . . by quanticle: (:title Trust Me I'm Lying: Confessions of A Media Manipulator (review) :) (:mathjax:) ''Trust Me I'm Lying'', by Ryan Holiday, is probably the most influential book I've read in the past two years. This book is a guidebook to the twenty-first century media ecosystem, and shows how the structures and incentives of online media serve to polarize us by stoking fear and anger. First published in 2012, the book is eerily prophetic in many places, as it talks about the toxic influence of online publishing on politics and society. Ryan Holiday is a marketer and publicist who specializes in manipulating ''blogs'' in service of his clients. So what is a blog? A blog is any online publishing platform which derives its revenue from advertising. Blogs range in size from small, fly-by-night local publications all the way up to multi million dollar properties like ''Gawker'' and the ''Huffington Post''. Blogs may be independent, such as ''Huffington Post'' or ''Politico'' or they may be associated with an existing media franchise. For example the ''Monkey Cage'' politics blog is hosted by the Washington Post, and ''MoneyWatch'' is a financial blog hosted by CBS. The key observation that Ryan makes is that all blogs, no matter how large or small they are, no matter if they're associated with an existing media franchise or not, are driven by the same economic incentives. The revenue a blog makes can be expressed as (price per page-view) {$ \times $} (number of page-views). Since blogs have little control over how much they are paid per reader, blogs universally tend to work to maximize the number of readers they get. Moreover the sheer number of blogs, and the extremely low barrier to entry creates a brutally Darwinian marketplace where any content that doesn't maximize page-views is rapidly superseded by content that does. In order to maximize the number of people clicking on their stories (and thus viewing the ads on those stories), blogs exploit every flaw in human psychology they can find. Chief among these is provocation. Ryan cites a study by Berger and Milkman from 2012 [1] which shows that content with high emotional valence spreads much faster than content which is emotionally neutral. The study compared stories on the New York Times website, and found that articles which induced anger were 34% more likely than the median article to make the top-10 most e-mailed list. Articles that induced awe also did well, being 30% more likely than the median article to make the most e-mailed list. Both anger and awe are high-arousal emotions (in a negative and positive direction, respectively). On the flip side, articles that induce low-arousal emotions, like sadness, suffer a penalty. Sad articles were 16% ''less'' likely than the median article to end up on the most e-mailed list. These facts about human psychology act as constraints on the kinds of stories blogs will write. Every story has to make people feel a "high-energy" emotion, like anger, or awe. Stories that are thoughtful, practical, useful or beautiful but melancholy fall by the wayside.
Main.InterestingLinks . . . by quanticle: !! 2025-06-10 Tuesday [[#org-2025-06-10_interesting_links]] * [[https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/potato-price-surge-fuels-inflation-pain-russias-poorest-2025-06-10/ | Potato prices triple in Russia]] * Russian potato yields fell significantly last year, both due to bad weather and due to sanctions impeding Russia's ability to import fertilizer and machinery * Prices for onions, cabbages and beets have also surged * The price increases add pressure on the Russian central bank, which has had to increase interest rates to 20% in order to combat war-induced inflation * ''Unfortunately, however, the Russian economy still appears to be far from collapse'' * [[https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/google-ai-news-publishers-7e687141 | Google's AI tools are crushing traffic to news websites]] * As chatbots replace Google searches, fewer users are clicking through to news websites * Have to evolve their business model as traffic from Google dwindles
Main.ShortformThoughts . . . by quanticle: (:title Shortform Thoughts :) (:mathjax:) !! 2025-06-02 Monday [[#org-2025-06-02_shortform]] !!! Russian Losses in Ukraine are Sustainable [[#org-2025-06-02_russian_losses]] In War on the Rocks, Collin Meisel and Mathew Burrows write, "[[https://warontherocks.com/2025/05/russia-can-afford-to-take-a-beating-in-ukraine/ | Russia Can Afford To Take A Beating In Ukraine]]". Russian
Main.RussiaCanAffordToTakeABeatingInUkraineOutline . . . by quanticle: (:title Russia Can Afford To Take A Beating In Ukraine :) (:mathjax:) Source: [[https://warontherocks.com/2025/05/russia-can-afford-to-take-a-beating-in-ukraine/ | War on the Rocks]] * Russian forces are suffering more than 400,000 casualties a year in Ukraine * Is this sustainable? Unfortunately yes * This explains President Putin's approach to peace talks in Istanbul; Putin believes that time is on his side * Russian force replenishment through 2024 has been more effective than many predicted * NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Christopher Cavioli observed that the current Russian military is about 15% larger than it was when it invaded Ukraine * Russia's advantage in overall population means that Russian can suffer three times as many losses as Ukraine can for the same demographic impact
Main.ChineseAmphibiousWarfareProspectsForACross-StraitInvasionOutline . . . by quanticle: !! Foreword [[#orgeee02f9]] !! Introduction: Taking Taiwan By Force? Chinese Amphibious Warfare In the New Era [[#org49fb32a]] !!! Doctrinal Foundations of Chinese Amphibious Warfare [[#org61871ca]] !!! The Joint Amphibious Force [[#orgf4b1d18]] !!! Enablers of Amphibious Warfare [[#org2776ae2]]
Main.WikiSandbox . . . by quanticle: (:htoc end=3:) !! Foreword [[#org8a9cf67]] !! Introduction: Taking Taiwan By Force? Chinese Amphbious Warfare In the New Era [[#orgced8617]] !!! Doctrinal Foundations of Chinese Amphibious Warfare [[#org85b6181]] !!! The Joint Amphibious Force [[#org6bfe72a]] !!! Enablers of Amphibious Warfare [[#org46131a1]]
Main.2024Formula1Season . . . by quanticle: !!! Track Info [[#orgfce9993]] !!! Tire Info [[#org3a19b3a]] !!! Qualifying [[#org5fb7e88]] !!!! Q1 [[#org98ad073]] !!!! Q2 [[#orgb4f3e7f]]
Main.Tea . . . by quanticle: (:htoc end=2:) * All teas are brewed with approximately 5.1 grams / 400 mL !! Upton Tea [[#org5900d8a]] !!! Superior Bold Leaf Formosa Keemun (Taiwan) [[#org997302e]] * 100 °C
Main.2024EuropeIndiaTripNotes . . . by quanticle: (:title 2024 Europe/India Trip :) (:mathjax:) !! Amsterdam [[#org7b49a24]] * Canal tour * Overrated city * Might be nice in the summer, but it's so far north that summer would be at most a couple of months * Protestant architecture is genuinely boring
Main.WarsAreNotAccidentsOutline . . . by quanticle: \ \ !! The Secret History [[#org2b906f2]] !! Blurred Lines [[#org0f79fce]] !! On The Ledge [[#orgbbf0b2c]] !! It Takes Two [[#orga2f8ac7]]
Main.PartyOnTheBridge . . . by quanticle: (:title Review: Party on the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy :) (:mathjax:) American naval captains, like their British forebears, command a great deal of authority. In the US Navy, a captain is wholly and entirely responsible for maintaining the safety of their vessel, its crew, and accomplishing the missions that they are assigned. They have sole command of all aspects of their ship's operation, from watch rotations to weapons employment. This tradition of sole command is so inculcated into Anglo-American naval traditions that it is difficult for us to imagine any other way of running a navy ship. The Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), however, offers an alternative system. Instead of being commanded by individuals, as US and UK naval vessels are, PLAN vessels have a dual command system, where a captain and a political officer assume joint responsibility for major decisions. In their report, [[https://www.csis.org/analysis/party-bridge-political-commissars-chinese-navy | Party on the Bridge: Political Commissars in the Chinese Navy]], Jeff Benson and Zi Yang look at this very
Main.AnArmyTryingToShakeItselfFromIntellectualSlumberPart2From9-11ToGreatPowerCompetition . . . by quanticle: ** ''Apparently the US lost its tactical nuclear weapons to arms control treaties'' * ''The premise is that counterinsurgency is an aberration, and that the Army needs to "refocus" on its "core competency" of deterring and (when deterrence fails) winning against near-peer adversaries''
Main.PartyOnTheBridgeOutline . . . by quanticle: !! Introduction [[#org062c8f1]] !! Key Insights [[#orgba1a129]] !! The Role of the Political Commissar [[#orgc5bf366]] !!! A Tradition of Party Control [[#org355b69c]] !!! Organizational Overview [[#org90fe5ee]]
Main.2022RussiaUkraineWarRawNotes . . . by quanticle: (:htoc end=2:) !! The War [[#org789b65b]] !!! 2022-12-16 Friday [[#org9abf667]] !!! 2022-12-15 Thursday [[#org7b5c4dc]]
Main.CanEuropeDefendItselfOutline . . . by quanticle: (:title Can Europe Defend Itself? :) (:mathjax:) (:htoc end=2:) [[https://www.derpragmaticus.com/r/europa-selbst-verteidigen | Original article]]\ [[https://gist.github.com/quanticle/e1c01ce10d5188ed55c196cfd0ba62c5 | Translation]] * Pax Americana, the term given to the American enforced peace in the West, has lasted for nearly 80 years * However, that peace is coming under increasing pressure * Domestic forces in the US, especially those aligned with Donald Trump, wish to realign the US to focus on China, leaving other regions, such as Europe, the Middle East, and rest of Asia to fend for themselves * Russia and China are maneuvering to take advantage of this potential retreat
Main.UkraineAndTheFutureOfOffensiveManeuverWarfare . . . by quanticle: !! Variations in Force Employment [[#org4c4747d]] !! Repeating Lessons From the History of Land Warfare [[#org5f251e3]] !! Force Employment and Combat Outcomes [[#org31650cc]] !! Long Live Offensive Maneuver [[#orgeefd02f]]
Reviews.TheEndOfZeitenwende . . . by quanticle: (:title Summary: The End of Zeitenwende :) (:mathjax:) On February 27, 2022, in light of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz proclaimed a ''Zeitenwende'', or turning point. According to Scholz, Germany would no longer be a passive economic power in the heart of Europe, but it would rather play a more active geopolitical role, remilitarizing, and supporting European security as part of NATO and the European Union. To bring this about, Scholz outlined five policy priorities: # Support Ukraine in its fight against Russia # End dependence on Russian energy supplies while continuing to pursue climate goals # End the policy of accommodation for authoritarian states
Main.TheEndOfZeitenwendeReflectionsAfterTwoYearsOfActionGroupZeitenwendeOutline . . . by quanticle: !! Ukraine: Failure To Commit To Victory Undermines Substantial Support [[#orge18b1d5]] * Highest European contribution to Ukraine in absolute financial terms !! Energy Policy: Rapid Change Marred By Questionable Direction and Durability [[#orgdea77e7]] !! Approach To Authoritarian States: Shaky In Practice, Misguided in Strategy [[#orge16e597]] !! EU and NATO: Insufficient Change Leaves Germany Adrift Of European Allies [[#org3f401aa]] !! Rearming Germany: Too Little, Too Slow, Too Uncertain [[#orgd74cd06]]
Main.2024SuperBowlCommercials . . . by quanticle: !! First Quarter [[#first_quarter]] !! Second Quarter [[#second_quarter]] !! Halftime [[#halftime]] * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKzk1h7qrj8 | Paramount+ — Hail Arnold]] !! Third Quarter [[#third_quarter]] !! Fourth Quarter [[#fourth_quarter]]
Main.TheYomKippurWarAndTheShapingOfTheUnitedStatesAirForceOutline . . . by quanticle: !! Introduction [[#org46f2418]] * The Yom Kippur War also reinforced the need for closer coordination between the Air Force and Army — led to the Air Land Battle concept !! Chapter 1 [[#orgacdad79]] !!! The Yom Kippur War in Overview [[#org86eb65b]] * Israeli combined arms forces then raced to victory on multiple fronts, taking the Sinai Desert, the Golan Heights and, most importantly for Israel, full possession of the city of Jerusalem !!! Missiles and Bent Wings: The Air War [[#orgd3e948e]]
Main.TrustMeImLyingConfessionsOfAMediaManipulator . . . by quanticle: * Wikipedia is where bloggers all do their background research, so manipulating the framing of an issue on Wikipedia directly affects how bloggers treat the subject down the road * If your Wikipedia page says you're a "failed screenwriter", that's the framing that will be used in interviews, regardless of what success you've had in other fields * Ryan has told his clients to use specific words or phrases in interviews to get those quotes onto their Wikipedia page, knowing that reporters will blindly copy that text into their own articles * Ryan takes advantage of misinterpretations of Wikipedia facts to paint his clients in a more flattering light * Tucker Max's book was on the New York Times bestseller list on 3 separate occasions, in 2007, 2008, and 2009 * Ryan adds this fact to Wikipedia * A blogger than misinterprets this data and thinks it means that Tucker Max's book has been on the New York Times bestseller list for three years running * Ryan then uses that blog as a source to update Tucker Max's Wikipedia page to say that he's been on New York Times bestseller list for three years running * Wikipedia doesn't care about truth, it cares about verifiability
Main.TheGeneralsAmericanMilitaryCommandFromWorldWarIIToToday . . . by quanticle: ** Generals in World War 2 were given a few months to prove themselves — if they could not prove themselves in that time, they were relieved of command ** If the Army isn't firing its generals, civilians now are — more generals are now being dismissed by civilian oversight ** Singled out early as an able commander — one of his superiors said that he'd rather serve under Marshall than have Marshall serve under him ** Known as a rather colorless officer — preferred duty and country over career advancement ** ''I guess George C. Marshall was the Paul Graham of his era — finding young talent and pushing them into leadership roles, only in the Army rather than private industry'' * ''Like Zhukov, Eisenhower was best at the "operational" part of warfare — at the point where broad strategic goals have to turn into specific orders for units'' * Unlike the Germans, who characterized Patton as the best American general, Eisenhower said Patton was the best at "aggressively pursuing a retreating enemy" — far more measured praise * MacArthur's legacy in the Army would mostly be a negative one — the Army's continued distrust of brash, outsize figures is a result of MacArthur (and, to a lesser extent, Patton)
Main.2023-2024EnglishPremierLeague . . . by quanticle: !! Sunday May 19 2024 * Burnley 1 - 2 Nottingham Forest * Brighton & Hove Albion 0 - 2 Manchester United * Arsenal 2 - 1 Everton * Brentford 2 - 4 Newcastle United * Luton Town 2 - 4 Fulham * Manchester City 3 - 1 West Ham United
Main.ButterySmoothEmacs . . . by quanticle: Of course not. Emacs pretends GTK+ is an old-fashioned Xt toolkit. The entire Emacs philosophy is to force $MODERN\_THING to behave just like Xt just like a 1960s TTY. Emacs does awful things to GTK+ to maintain this illusion.
Main.NewsLinks . . . by quanticle: * [[https://www.economist.com/weeklyedition/ | The Economist]] * [[https://semafor.com | Semafor]] !! Motorsport * [[https://www.the-race.com/ | The Race]]
Main.EndingTheThreatOfWarInUkraine . . . by quanticle: (:title Ending The Threat of War In Ukraine: A Negotiated Settlement to the Donbas Conflict and Crimean Dispute :) (:mathjax:) (:htoc end=3:) Source: [[https://quincyinst.org/report/ending-the-threat-of-war-in-ukraine/ | The Quincy Institute]] !! Executive Summary * The Donbas conflict has resulted in the deaths of over 14,000 since 2015 * Recent military build-up on the border of Ukraine risks sparking a broader war
Main.NewImmigrationEstimatesHelpMakeSenseOfThePaceOfEmploymentOutline . . . by quanticle: (:htoc end=2:) !! My Thoughts * ''The author's intent is for this report to be read as a pro-immigration report, but it can just as easily be read as an anti-immigration argument'' * ''The fact that the economy managed to add roughly 4x the predicted number of jobs without any wage pressure implies that immigration (and illegal immigration more specifically) held down wages'' * ''In other words, they took our jerbs!''
Main.ProgressPostmodernismAndTheTechBacklash . . . by quanticle: *** ''Cars — [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_badge-engineered_vehicles | badge engineering]] — the same "platform" sells for vastly different prices depending on whether it has e.g. a Chevrolet or Cadillac label''
Main.Pillsbury . . . by quanticle: (:title Pillsbury :) (:mathjax:) * July 2000: [[https://www.supermarketnews.com/archive/general-mills-pillsbury-merger | General Mills agrees to acquire Pillsbury from Diageo]] ([[https://web.archive.org/web/20120623194836/https://www.supermarketnews.com/archive/general-mills-pillsbury-merger | archive]]) * November 2001: [[https://web.archive.org/web/20120623194836/https://www.supermarketnews.com/archive/general-mills-pillsbury-merger | International Multifoods acquires Pillsbury, Hungry Jack, Martha White, Pet, Farmhouse, Softasilk, Robin Hood, Red Brand and La Pina from General Mills]] ([[https://web.archive.org/web/20240127035620/https://progressivegrocer.com/international-multifoods-completes-acquisition-pillsbury-desserts-and-specialty-products-businesses | archive]]) * March 2004: [[https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB107876204968349178 | J.M. Smucker Company agrees to buy International Multifoods]] ([[https://archive.is/gM6pK | archive]]) * September 2018: [[https://hometownfoodcompany.com/hometown-food-company-closes-the-acquisition-of-the-pillsbury-shelf-stable-baking-business-the-hungry-jack-brand-and-other-assets-from-the-j-m-smucker-company-and-appoints-senior-managem/ | Brynwood Partners acquires Pillsbury, Funfetti, Hungry Jack, White Lily and Jim Dandy from J.M Smucker company]] ([[https://web.archive.org/web/20210421090134/https://hometownfoodcompany.com/hometown-food-company-closes-the-acquisition-of-the-pillsbury-shelf-stable-baking-business-the-hungry-jack-brand-and-other-assets-from-the-j-m-smucker-company-and-appoints-senior-managem/ | archive]]), and creates a new subsidiary, Hometown Foods, to house those brands * January 2024: [[https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/hometown-food-company-maker-pillsbury-baking-products-up-sale-sources-2024-01-27/ | Brynwood Partners is exploring the sale of Hometown Foods]] ([[https://archive.is/r4mNy | archive]])
Main.NeonGenesisEvangelionOutline . . . by quanticle: (:mathjax:) (:htoc end=2:) !! Episode 1: Angel Attack * Prior to that he was told nothing — his summons were an ID card and a completely redacted report annotated with "Come" and signed by his father * Geo-Front * NERV HQ * "Fortress for all mankind"
Main.FirstStrikeChinasMissileThreatToUSBasesInAsiaOutline . . . by quanticle: Authors: Thomas Shugart, Javier Gonzalez\ Center for a New American Security\ [[https://s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/files.cnas.org/hero/documents/CNASReport-FirstStrike-Final.pdf | Web Link]]\ * The PLA has adopted a "projectile-centric" approach to precision strike * Firepower strikes against an enemy's strategic rear areas * Therefore, the Chinese leadershipe reserves the right to respond militarily to political actions that they feel would lead to violations of China's territorial integrity * The Chinese have sought to build a force capable of accomplishing something that the Soviet Union sought, but was was never able to achieve * According to the US Department of Defense, China currently fields
Main.ExplainingForeignPolicyInternationalDiplomacyAndTheRusso-GeorgianWarOutline . . . by quanticle: (:htoc end=3:) * 2 anticipated audiences * For the latter audience this book evaluates a range of explanatory levels * Intra-state factors * Deliberate challenge to US foreign policy as it related to post-Soviet states in particular * In a 2007 speech at the Munich Security Conference, Vladimir Putin had spelled out his country's dissatisfaction with the post-Cold War American-led order * Neglect of UN resolutions and international law * The diplomacy around the Russo-Georgian War of 2008 presents a number of puzzling aspects
Reviews.ABriefTechnicalHistoryOfPLANNuclearSubmarines . . . by quanticle: [[https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-maritime-reports/30/ | Original Article]] [[https://wiki.quanticle.net/Main/ABriefTechnicalHistoryOfPLANNuclearSubmarinesOutline | My Outline]] Submarines are an important component of any navy. They possess the ability to pass undetected, gathering information and carrying out attacks, forcing adversaries to commit disproportionate numbers of ships and aircraft to tracking and neutralizing them. This makes them a key component of sea denial strategies. Even a small force of submarines can make it vastly more complex for an adversary navy to transport troops, launch attacks or impose a blockade. Nuclear submarines amplify these advantages. With powerplants capable of generating virtually limitless amounts of energy, nuclear submarines can circle the globe without having to come up for air. This level of endurance significantly expands tactical options, allowing the submarine to exert its influence even in regions far away from its home nation's coastline. For a ballistic missile submarine, the advantages of nuclear power are even more pronounced. Nuclear propulsion allows ballistic missile submarines to patrol without surfacing, giving nations an ability to launch or respond to nuclear attack with systems that are virtually undetectable until they choose to fire their missiles. Ballistic missile submarines are an essential part of the "nuclear triad", providing the assured retaliation against any pre-emptive nuclear attack.
Main.CombatAircraftGenerations . . . by quanticle: * Straight wings * Sustained supersonic flight, enabled by * [[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Area_rule | Area ruled]] fuselages * Afterburners * Early air-to-air missiles * Many 2nd generation planes were designed primarily as interceptors, to deal with the threat of high-speed, high altitude bombers * F-104 * MiG-21 * First aircraft designed around air-to-air missiles as their primary weapon, with guns relegated a secondary role * Much more maneuverable than generation 2
Main.RationalistExplanationsForWarOutline . . . by quanticle: * In other words, if {$A$}'s military power increases sufficiently (and therefore {$p_{t+1}$} is sufficiently larger than {$p_{t}$}, then the expected payoff for a preemptive attack will exceed {$B$}'s discounted cost for war * Prior to this point, the paper has been treating territory as a divisible, fungible good
Main.FranceCanSaveTheKurdsInSyria . . . by quanticle: Originally published in [[https://www.wsj.com/articles/france-can-lead-europe-and-save-syrias-kurds-11573604546 | The Wall Street Journal]] ([[https://archive.ph/2wqY3 | archive]]) \
Main.WhenCrimePaysOutline . . . by quanticle: * Anant Singh conducts regular walking tours through villages in his jurisdiction !!!!! Dignity and Defensive Criminality * Anant Singh's supporters don't really view him as a criminal, because his crimes either take place far away from their day-to-day lives, or are framed as actions taken to support his Bhumihar base * Singh's supporters draw a distinction between "offensive" and "defensive" crimes * "Defensive" crimes are those committed in order to retaliate or defend against the crimes of others * Legally, there is no distinction between the two — a crime is a crime * The perception of Anant Singh as either a criminal or a righteous fighter for his constituents is heavily influenced by caste
Main.ContraMoldbugOnSovereignty . . . by quanticle: (:title Contra Moldbug on Sovereignty :) (:mathjax:) ''A response to [[https://graymirror.substack.com/p/a-brief-explanation-of-the-cathedral | Moldbug's latest essay]]'' ->This form of government—the form that doesn’t leak power—has a name. It is called a monarchy. The form of government currently used by Mutopia also has a name. It is a bureaucracy, which is one kind of oligarchy. (“Deep State,” if you absolutely must.) Since when are monarchies immune from leaking power? This is why Moldbug annoys me so much. He constantly goes on about how historically knowledgeable he is… and then makes basic errors, like this. Monarchies leak power into their bureaucracies ''all the time''. The stereotype of the "good Tsar" and the "evil Minister" exists for a reason. The normal case with monarchy is that the monarch delegates almost all of his or her power to bureaucrats, and the overall effect is much the same as that of a normal bureaucracy. The bureaucrats then go out to universities, etc, etc, to find ways of implementing their policies, and then process of sovereignty leaking proceeds as normal. In fact, it's so normal that when a monarch attempts to reverse this process, it often leads to revolution. Both the Magna Carta and the Glorious Revolution were responses by British nobility to a monarch that was seen as being overly centralizing. Similarly, in Russia, one of the root causes of the Bolshevik Revolution was that Tsars Alexander III and Nicholas II styled themselves as old-school divine-right monarchs (instead of the more modern parliamentary monarch), and, as a result, attempted to roll back and slow down some of the sovereignty diluting changes of their reformist predecessors, most notably Tsar Alexander II.
Main.2022-2023EnglishPremierLeague . . . by quanticle: !! Monday May 8 * '''Nottingham Forest''' 4 - 3 Southampton * Brighton & Hove Albion 1 - 5 '''Everton''' * '''Fulham''' 5 - 3 Leicester City !! Saturday May 13
Main.Ledger . . . by quanticle: Transaction destination $amount Transaction source $-amount * Note the double-space between the account name and the amount * So, for example, to record a $35.24 purchase at Target, paid by one's Citibank Mastercard Expenses:Target $35.24 Liabilities:Citibank:Mastercard $-35.24 Expenses:Target $35.24 Assets:Checking $10000 Assets:Savings $50000
Main.TheAllureOfBattleOutline . . . by quanticle: (:title The Allure Of Battle :) (:mathjax:) (:htoc:) !! Introduction * Military history seems very easy * History is decided by the outcomes of war * The outcomes of wars are decided by the outcomes of battles
Main.AdversarialMachineLearningAndCybersecurityOutline . . . by quanticle: [[https://fsi9-prod.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2023-04/adversarial_machine_learning_and_cybersecurity_v7_pdf_1.pdf | Published]] by the Center of Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University and the Stanford Geopolitics, Technology and Governance Cyber Policy Center
Main.HiccupCure . . . by quanticle: (:title Hiccup Cure :) (:mathjax:) Source: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/scientific-hiccup-cures-hiccaway-straw-ssmi-breathing/673151/ * Exhale completely * Inhale a deep breath * Wait 10 seconds * Without exhaling, inhale a little bit more * Wait 5 seconds * Without exhaling, inhale a bit more again
Main.2023SuperBowlCommercials . . . by quanticle: (:title 2023 Super Bowl Ads :) (:mathjax:) * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBIX9FG6kZ0 | Dunkin' Donuts]] — Ben Affleck works the drive through * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ikvkQVE64a0 | Digidaigaku NFT]] * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w57YsiNmt90 | Avocados From Mexico]] — Avocados Make Everything Better * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X8aV2tbCMUM | eTrade]] — Baby Wedding * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wij_Fmg8axA | Draft Kings]] — Kevin Hart "Short Odds" * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ex1P-cXIKUE | Remy Martin]] — Serena Williams "Inches" * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLJoQRS48KQ | T-Mobile]] — Bradley Cooper and his mother try to film a T-Mobile commercial * [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDh7W0WFTd8 | Rakuten]] — Clueless
Main.Local-firstSoftware . . . by quanticle: (:title Local-First Software: Peter Van Hardenburg :) (:mathjax:) [[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrPsyr8Ig6M | Video Link]] * [[https://www.inkandswitch.com/ | Ink and Switch]]: Industrial research group exploring tools for thought * Examples of tools for thought * Paper * Physical objects * Computers * Properties of good tools for thought
Main.TheRace . . . by quanticle: * [[2023-01-22_how_each_team_needs_to_improve_in_2023 | How Each Team Needs To Improve In 2023]] * [[2023-01-29_2023_f1_car_trends | 2023 F1 Car Trends]]
Main.2023-01-22HowEachTeamNeedsToImproveIn2023 . . . by quanticle: (:title 2023-01-22 The Race: How Each Team Needs To Improve In 2023 :) (:mathjax:) (:htoc:) !! Williams * James Vowles, the new Williams team principal, has a lot to do * Need to get everyone pulling in the same direction * Heal cultural and factional differences
Main.2022Formula1Season . . . by quanticle: * 71 laps * Red Bull and Mercedes both starting on soft tires * Ferrari starting on medium tires * Lap 1 * George Russell gets away clean and Lewis Hamilton holds on to 2nd * Daniel Ricciardo runs into the back of Kevin Magnussen, who spins and skids backwards into Ricciardo * Both cars are out of the race * Safety car declared * ''I feel really bad for Kevin Magnussen, but this is just typical Haas luck'' * Lap 5 — Alex Albon comes in under the safety car and goes onto medium tires
Main.FirefoxSetup . . . by quanticle: #TabsToolbar { display: none !important; } #titlebar { display: none !important; } # If, after a restart, Firefox doesn't seem to be picking up the changes from @@userChrome.css@@, try going into @@about:profiles@@ and hitting the @@Restart@@ button there
Main.WarOnTheRocks . . . by quanticle: * [[The Kremlin In Command Part 1: The Chechen Wars and Georgia]] * [[Southwards and Eastward Pressure on Russian Forces]]
Main.TheKremlinInCommandPart1TheChechenWarsAndGeorgia . . . by quanticle: (:title The Kremlin In Command, Part 1: The Chechen Wars and Georgia :) (:mathjax:) [[https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/the-kremlin-in-command-part-i-the-chechen-wars-and-georgia/ | Podcast Link]] !! Panelists * Host: Ryan Evans * Guests * Lawrence Freedman
Main.WikiSandbox2 . . . by quanticle: (:title The Allure Of Battle :) (:htoc:) !! Introduction * Military history seems very easy * History is decided by the outcomes of war * The outcomes of wars are decided by the outcomes of battles * In recent years, there has been a reaction against this war-centric approach, with historians focusing on longer terms social, political and economic trends
Main.WikiSandbox3 . . . by quanticle: * Nicholas Latifi — Williams * Sebastian Vettel — Aston Martin * Lance Stroll — Aston Martin * Kevin Magnussen — Haas * Mick Schumacher — Haas * Big moment from Nyck DeVries — locks up the rear axle, manages to keep the car on the track, but ruins his lap * Esteban Ocon — Alpine * Valteri Bottas — Alfa Romeo
Reviews.NormalizationOfCensorshipEvidenceFromChina . . . by quanticle: (:title Normalization of Censorship: Evidence From China :) (:markdown:) Conventional wisdom holds that censorship on the Internet is a somewhat futile endeavor. As John Gilmore put it, "The Net interprets censorship as damage and routes around it." More concretely, we have the Streisand Effect, where Barbara Streisand attempted to remove photos of her house from the Internet, and, in the process of doing so, only drew more attention to them. Because of this, most political scientists hold that authoritarian regimes censor as little as possible, limiting their censorship to information directly threatening to the government and information encouraging collective action, which could turn into anti-government protests. Censoring more than that is thought to lead to backlash, as ordinary Internet users would encounter censorship in their everyday usage, and seeing the heavy hand of the state on a day-to-day basis, encourages rebellion. Yet anecdotal evidence from China indicates otherwise. Casual browsing of Chinese social media indicates that the Chinese government censors far more than the minimum necessary to suppress anti-government and collective action information. Is this perception actually true? And, if so, how does the Chinese government get away with censoring so much without engendering a backlash? These are the questions the author of "[Normalization of Censorship: Evidence From China](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3835217)" ([my outline](https://wiki.quanticle.net/Main/NormalizationOfCensorshipEvidenceFromChina)) set out to answer. First, he sought a quantitative answer to the question of whether China censors more than absolutely necessary. Conventional wisdom holds that the Internet behind the Great Firewall is relatively freewheeling, so long as one stays away from criticizing the government or encouraging collective protests. Turning to the [WeChatScope database](https://academic.oup.com/joc/article-abstract/70/6/842/5913142) of censored articles, the author demonstrates that this isn't the case. Using a supervised machine learning process, he classified the articles in the database into political and non-political categories. In order to avoid undercounting political stories, the author applied the categories sequentially, with the political categories going first. Furthermore, he explicitly excluded anything having to do with the government or politics from the classification rubrics for the non-political categories. Finally, because the WeChatScope database covers censored articles posted to newsfeeds of politically-focused accounts, the author felt that, if anything, the dataset would be biased in the opposite direction — towards showing that the central government was mostly censoring politics and protest. As he expected, the author found that the Chinese government was censoring far more just politics and protest. Of the 15872 censored articles that WeChatScope collected from March 2018 to May 2020, only about 40% were related to politics and collective action. The remaining 60% were "harmless" articles, having mostly to do with entertainment or business. Even when he extended the definition of "politics" to include business and the economy, he found that approximately 43% of articles were non-political, still a substantial minority. The idea that you can get away with saying whatever you want on the Chinese Internet, so long as you stay away from criticizing the government, appears to be a myth.
Main.TheUkraineWarTwoMonthsIn . . . May 09, 2022, at 01:58 AM by quanticle: (:title A Summary of the First Two Months of the Ukraine War :) (:markdown:) RUSI has published a decent analysis of the war thus far, along with speculation of how the war might unfold in the second phase. Despite the grandiose title, "[Operation Z: The Death Throes of an Imperial Delusion](https://static.rusi.org/special-report-202204-operation-z-web.pdf)", I found it useful summary of the war thus far. The authors, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, interviewed Ukrainian officers and conducted their own fieldwork to sum up how things went wrong for Russia in the opening stages of the war, how Russia has refocused towards more limited objectives, and what this means for the Russian economy and western diplomatic and political strategy as the war drags on. My summary and analysis follows. The opening phases of the war are familiar to most, but this report does bring to light some facts that were not well publicized during the chaos of late February. One is that, at least in the first 72 hours or so, Russian electronic warfare does appear to have been quite effective. Ukrainian radar operators reported heavy jamming, along with extensive use of decoys posing as Russian aircraft. Then as Russian troops advanced, this electronic warfare slackened. The authors surmise that Russian commanders were unwilling to risk rare and expensive electronic warfare assets too close to the front lines, and thus they had to cease jamming lest their jamming disrupt their own communications. Another interesting tidbit is the confirmation that the Ukrainians had advance warning of the Russian attack on Hostomel airfield. Ukrainian intelligence had picked up discussions between VDV commanders about an attack on the Antonov airfield, and were able to preposition forces to counterattack before the airborne infantry had arrived. There is reporting that this information was forwarded to the Ukrainians from Western sources, but the report does not speculate on the methods by which the Ukrainians determined that Hostomel airport was a likely target early in the conflict. Ukrainian soldiers also reinforce an underemphasized point in the coverage of the war: the importance of artillery. As a Ukrainian general notes: "anti-tank weapons slowed them [the Russians] down, but what killed them was our artillery." Although Javelins and Bayraktars are getting a lot of press, the most important weapon, from the Ukrainian perspective, is the simple towed or self-propelled howitzer. Massed artillery fires, coordinated by drones, or even civilians reporting Russian movements with their smartphones, was decisive in countering the Russian assault on Kyiv.
Main.BeijingIsUsedToLearningFromRussianFailures . . . May 02, 2022, at 02:57 PM by quanticle: (:title Beijing Is Used To Learning From Russian Failures :) (:markdown:) Source: [Foreign Policy](https://archive.ph/s7HwY) - Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Putin - China has faced many of the same limitations with its military that Russia is facing right now - However, China has done more to address these limitations, and thus we should not expect the Chinese military to perform as poorly in a Taiwan invasion scenario as the Russian military has performed in Ukraine - China's economy is also more resilient to sanctions - Russia badly overestimated its military capabilities - Poor air-to-ground coordination
Main.TheWizardingWorldIsNotALibertarianParadise . . . March 04, 2022, at 01:47 PM by quanticle: This reply to Rymers is admittedly a bit silly. But I don't think it's any sillier than the original argument. Rymers claims that Harry Potter has a libertarian subtext. I think this claim is based on a very surface level understanding of Harry Potter, and a closer reading of the text yields an argument closer to the traditional left-liberal interpretation. The wizarding world is statist and disrespectful of individual rights, and taking our world closer to it is taking our world further away from the ideals of libertarianism.
Main.BrookingsPanelDiscussionOnThe30thAnniversaryOfTheFallOfTheSovietUnion . . . December 22, 2021, at 05:17 PM by quanticle: (:title Brookings Discussion on the 30th Anniversary of the Fall of the Soviet Union :) (:markdown:) - [Link to source](https://pca.st/n9h1c4q9) - Moderated by Angela Stent (Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy -- Center on the United States and Europe) - Panelists - James Goldgeier -- Visiting Fellow, Foreign Policy -- Center on the United States and Europe - Fiona Hill -- Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy -- Center on the United States and Europe - Donald Jensen -- Director, Russia and Strategic Stability -- United States Institute of Peace - Vladislav Zubok -- Professor, Department of International History -- London School of Economics and Political Science - Pavel K. Baev -- Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy -- Center on the United States and Europe
Main.UndiplomaticEpisode103NuclearPrecarityKeynoteLectureOnNuclearWarRisksInEastAsia . . . November 22, 2021, at 02:24 AM by quanticle: (:title Undiplomatic Podcast Episode 103: Nuclear Precarity: Keynote Lecture on Nuclear War Risks in Eastern Asia :) (:htoc:) (:markdown:) ## Introduction - Keynote lecture delivered at Ritsumekan University in Kyoto Japan - Lecture on nuclear war risks in East Asia - "Nuclear precarity" - Not all nuclear crises are equally unstable
Main.Undiplomatic . . . November 22, 2021, at 02:24 AM by quanticle: (:title Undiplomatic Podcast :) * [[Undiplomatic Episode 103: Nuclear Precarity: Keynote Lecture on Nuclear War Risks in East Asia]]
Main.ChinasReactionToTheMetaverse . . . November 01, 2021, at 08:24 PM by quanticle: (:title China's Reaction to the Metaverse :) * Report published by China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR): https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/hlN7k-_4ZSftpyE2qNAGeA * Summarized by Bruno Macaes: https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/the-metaverse-and-national-security !! Summary * Report envisions the metaverse as a driver of technological innovation * Many of the fields that the metaverse will drive investment in are adjacent to national security ** Simulation graphics
Main.TheChallengerLaunchDecisionOutline . . . August 09, 2021, at 03:22 AM by quanticle: (:title Challenger Launch Decision :) (:htoc:) * Author: Diane Vaughan * Publisher: University of Chicago Press * Publication Date: 2016 !! Preface:
Main.SpacemacsNotes . . . July 09, 2021, at 07:43 AM by quanticle: * Spacemacs can use [[EmacsSetup#emacs-projectile | Projectile]] to rapidly navigate projects
Main.MattTaibbisInterviewWithNoamChomsky . . . April 18, 2021, at 01:31 AM by quanticle: This is why I’ve always admired Chomsky a great deal, even if I sometimes disagree with his politics (or his takes on sports for that matter!). Unafraid of criticism, few people of his stature in American life are willing to do what he does. He is clearly a man of principle, a character trait that might have gotten him in even more trouble had he come of political age in the Internet era. His [[https://chomsky.info/19801011/ | defense of the speech rights of Holocaust denier Robert Faurisson]] is still brought up by critics and sticks to his name like flypaper on Twitter. He doesn’t care.
Main.TheFutureCombatAirSystemAndTheEUsStrategicAcquisitionMalaise . . . April 09, 2021, at 06:06 PM by quanticle: (:title The Future Combat Air System and the EU's Strategic Acquisition Malaise :) Article link: https://cepa.org/the-future-combat-air-system-and-the-eus-strategic-autonomy-malaise/ * The Future Combat Air System was once hailed by President Macron as a "deep revolution" European defense cooperation * This system is now in trouble due to familiar disagreements between France and Germany over IP and workshare * FCAS woes illustrate the roadblocks on the EU's path towards strategic autonomy * EU needs a greater level of autonomy in defense as the US turns towards the Indo-Pacific * Work on the FCAS began in 2017 ** Brexit
Main.ReadingList . . . April 07, 2021, at 04:40 PM by quanticle: * Keen, Slemrod - ''Rebellion, Rascals and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom Through The Ages'' * Rajan - ''The Third Pillar: How Markets and the State Leave the Community Behind''
Main.2020Formula1Season . . . March 28, 2021, at 06:03 PM by quanticle: (:title 2020 Formula 1 Season:) (:htoc:) !! 2020-07-05 Austrian Grand Prix * Retirements ** Max Verstappen, Red Bull - hydraulics ** Daniel Ricciardo, Renault - overheat ** Lance Stroll, Racing Point - engine sensor ** Kevin Magnussen, Haas - brake failure
Main.DarknetDiariesEpisode50OperationGlowingSymphony . . . March 09, 2021, at 10:46 PM by quanticle: * Despite the breathlessness of the coverage, it's not like this was an especially complicated or sophisticated hack ** Doubt any 0-days were used ** Lots of social engineering & relying on targets' incompetence ** Far from looking like a bunch of super-elite hackers, US Cyber Command here looks like a mid-grade cybersecurity/pen-testing firm ** If you wrote up this hack without mentioning either the hackers or the targets, it would probably be rejected as a DefCon talk
Main.DarknetDiaries . . . March 09, 2021, at 08:18 PM by quanticle: * [[Darknet Diaries Episode 50: Operation Glowing Symphony | Episode 50: Operation Glowing Symphony]]
Main.LigatureTest . . . November 20, 2020, at 07:06 PM by quanticle: * Not equals: @@!=@@ * Triangle: @@|>@@
Main.2020AppleSiliconEvent . . . November 10, 2020, at 02:12 PM by quanticle: (:title 2020 Apple Silicon Event:) * M1 chip ** Unified memory architecture - same memory for CPU and GPU ** Like PS4 ** Almost the same performance as a PS4 ** Big.Little design - 4 high performance cores, 4 high efficiency cores ** All components on one die *** CPU *** GPU
Main.Nagorno-KarabakhLetter . . . November 03, 2020, at 04:18 AM by quanticle: (:title Economist Letter to the Editor re: Nagorno-Karabakh:) Thank you for drawing attention to the situation around the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in "Heavy metal" (October 10th). However, Nagorno-Karabakh is not a disputed territory. It is an integral part of Azerbaijan, together with seven adjacent regions, occupied and ethnically cleansed by Armenia. Various UN Security Council resolutions demand the immediate, unconditional and complete withdrawal of Armenian occupying forces from the territories of Azerbaijan. The map in your article is falsified. The real map of Azerbaijan, showing Nagorno-Karabakh within its internationally recognized borders, can be found on the website of the UN's cartographic department. We categorically reject the allegations on the use of Syrian mercenaries. Azerbaijan's armed forces are ranked 64 according to Global Firepower in terms of military strength and are perfectly capable of providing every protection Azerbaijan needs. Armenia, however, is ranked 111. We have had no problem rallying our people. On July 15th, amid yet another Armenian aggression against Azerbaijan along the international border, an estimated 30,000 people gathered in Baku's Azadliq Square demanding mobilisation and war to bring an end to the occupation of Azerbaijan's territories. The international community should not expect to resolve this conflict by simply calling for a ceasefire, unless it addresses that occupation and upholds international law. -- Tahir Taghizade (Ambassador of Azerbaijan, London)
Main.MacOSTips . . . October 31, 2020, at 03:02 AM by quanticle: * @@F11@@ (might have to enable in Mission Control settings) !! Clear terminal scrollback * To clear terminal scrollback in MacOS: @@Edit -> Clear Scrollback@@ !! JDK Setup Notes * To install a JDK from homebrew: ** Enable the AdoptOpenJDK brew tap: @@brew tap AdoptOpenJDK/openjdk@@
Main.WhatCanARetiredSailorTeachUsAboutTurkey . . . October 22, 2020, at 12:41 PM by quanticle: ** ''However, Israel has not been hesitant about selling arms to Turkey for it to use in Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh, so perhaps Turkey can persuade Israel to change its official policy?'' !! Blue Homeland and the Forging of Turkey's Foreign Policy Consensus * It is tempting to overanalyze Yaycı's pronouncements * This, however, just leads to Kremlinology, where innocuous statements are assigned profound significance * Instead it is important to see how Yaycı's statements show the extent to which all the disparate factions in Turkey are united on certain issues * All factions want a stronger foreign policy * All factions are united in their suspicion of Greece * While there are some differences in their attitudes toward the United States, the unity of thought towards Turkey's near abroad generally and Greece in particular indicates that we should continue to expect an aggressive, expansionist foreign policy from Turkey
Main.Podcasts . . . October 21, 2020, at 02:04 PM by quanticle: * %newwin%[[https://play.pocketcasts.net | Pocket Casts Web Player]]%%
Main.RadicalConjectureRadicalTruth . . . October 19, 2020, at 12:48 AM by quanticle: Source: %newwin%[[https://www.wrestlinggnon.com/sr_draft_2.html]]%% !! ''My Thoughts'' ''Brief summary:'' * ''This essay covers the following topics:'' ** ''Why do people compartmentalize religious belief''
Main.WhyIDidntLikeStarWarsTheLastJedi . . . September 29, 2020, at 02:18 PM by quanticle: *** But here? The loss of that Dreadnought at the beginning is totally pointless - why couldn't they have launched the fighters ''before'' the Rebels counterattacked? It's not like they haven't lost ''two'' superweapons to small fighters before
RationalityReadingGroup.2019-02-11Notes . . . February 11, 2019, at 02:14 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse](https://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf) #### Introduction - The collapse of complex human societies is a poorly understood phenomenon - Most proposed explanations fail to describe causative mechanisms - Rely on ad-hoc hypotheses based upon the specifics of the civilization
RationalityReadingGroup.2019-02-04Notes . . . February 04, 2019, at 01:21 PM by quanticle: - *Heck, not even neoreactionaries – most people would agree that criminals, for example, have given up their right to be free* - We have unlimited resources - *There's a bit of confusion going on here between charities and cause areas* - *A charity devoted to the arts might reach ten times fewer people than AMF, but that's because the arts charity is in a different cause area* - *If you're going to compare charities, and claim that the best charities reach tens or hundreds of times as many people as a randomly chosen charity, you need to make sure that you're comparing a randomly chosen charity to the best charity within that cause area* - Utilitarianism is a collection of philosophical positions which have 5 major characteristics in common - Utilitarianism is the doctrine that the morally right thing to do is that which maximizes <span class="underline">Utility</span> - Characteristics utilitarianism - Universalism - Moral principles are universal
RationalityReadingGroup.2019-01-28Notes . . . January 29, 2019, at 01:22 AM by quanticle: ### [The Tower](https://hotelconcierge.tumblr.com/post/162571849189/the-tower) #### Part I #### Part II #### Part III #### Part IV
Main.AnAlternativeToMythicMindset . . . May 12, 2018, at 02:30 AM by quanticle: Page renamed to Main.AnAlternativeToMythicMindset from Main.AnAlterinativeToMythicMindset
Main.KenshoVsDetermination . . . May 10, 2018, at 02:44 PM by quanticle: Today, I almost missed my flight. I woke up 110 minutes late. But, thanks to some heroics by my Uber driver, preparation on my part, and having the correct mindset, I was still able to make it on time. That mindset, however, was *not* a [mythic mindset](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/HnWN6v4wHQwmYQCLX/mythic-mode), and, in fact, I think that having such a mindset would have been actively counterproductive in my situation. Here, I'll try to outline a more productive mindset for use in situations like this one. As far as I understand it, the mythic mindset is one that uses narratives to guide one's next actions. You look at where you are now, what kind of person you are, and ask yourself, "If this was a story, and I was the protagonist, what would I do next?" For example, when Valentine went to meet his *sensei* in New York, he left without knowing whether his teacher would actually be present. He relied on understanding his place in the narrative well enough to ensure that he would meet his teacher when he arrived. And sure enough, that's exactly what happened, with his teacher arriving from an overseas trip on the same day that Valentine flew in. While it seems like I did exactly the same thing, I think I held a different mindset. My mindset was not one of narrative. At no point did I ask myself about the plot of the "story" I was living out. It was one of problem solving. I tried to put myself in the same mindset of one of my personal heroes, James Lovell. But in doing so, I was not attempting to live out the same narrative that James Lovell lived out when he commanded Apollo 13. I was asking myself, what would a pilot like him do in my situation? How would he approach the problem? I took my one impossible problem (get to the boarding gate by at least 10 minutes before the flight departs) and broke it down into smaller problems, which, while they seemed equally impossible, at least could be approached individually. I thought to myself, "In order to get to the gate, I need to get to the airport. In order to get to the airport, I need to get out of my apartment. In order to get out of my apartment, I need to get dressed." And then, at every stage, I consciously worked to shave time and maximize my odds, while knowing viscerally that the odds were very much against my making it to the plane on time. Moreover, while I failed critically in the task of waking up on time, I had prepared in other ways, and that preparation became even more crucial in this crisis situation. I did the work of making sure I had finished packing the night before. I had printed out my boarding passes and written the departure gate down on them, ensuring that I didn't have to stop once I got into the airport to find out where the flight was leaving from. I had signed up for TSA Pre-Check allowing me to use the priority lines at the security checkpoints. While normally these were all matters of convenience, in this instance these preparations were absolutely crucial to being able to make my flight.
KenshoVs.Determination . . . May 10, 2018, at 01:45 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) Today, I almost missed my flight. I woke up 110 minutes late. But, thanks to some heroics by my Uber driver, preparation on my part, and having the correct mindset, I was still able to make it on time. That mindset, however, was *not* Kensho, and, in fact, I think that having a Kensho mindset would have been actively counterproductive in my situation. Along the way, I'll try to outline a more productive mindset for use in situations like this one. As far as I understand it, Kensho is derived from the Buddhist concept of *enlightenment*. To me, enlightenment means to be at peace and to have acceptace of the world as it is, and to understand that some things are fundamentally out of one's control. For example, when Valentine went to meet his *sensei* in New York, he left without knowing whether his teacher would actually be present. He knowingly left it to the winds of fate to determine whether he got to meet his teacher or not. While it seems like I did exactly the same thing (god, waking up 110 minutes late, what were you thinking?!) I think I held a different mindset. My mindset was **not** one of acceptance. It was one of problem solving. I tried to put myself in the same mindset of one of my personal heroes, James Lovell. I took my one impossible problem (get to the boarding gate by at least 10 minutes before the flight departs) and broke it down into smaller problems, which, while they seemed equally impossible, at least offered the hints of solution. I thought to myself, "In order to get to the gate, I need to get to the airport. In order to get to the airport, I need to get out of my apartment. In order to get out of my apartment, I need to get dressed." And then, at every stage, I consciously worked to shave time and maximize my odds, while knowing viscerally that the odds were very much against my making it to the plane on time. Moreover, while I failed critically in the task of waking up on time, I had prepared in other ways, and that preparation became even more crucial in this crisis situation. I did the work of making sure I had finished packing the night before. I had printed out my boarding passes and written the departure gate down on them, ensuring that I didn't have to stop once I got into the airport to find out where the flight was leaving from. I had signed up for TSA Pre-Check allowing me to use the priority lines at the security checkpoints. While normally a convenience, Pre-Check was absolutely crucial in this instance. Another form of preparation was creating a checklist. Even though I was not able to complete all of the items on the checklist, the mere act of *having* a checklist ensure that I was able to be intentional about the steps that I was skipping, ensuring that nothing truly important (like grabbing my wallet and keys) got skipped. The checklist also allowed me to be confident in my preparation - I was able to tell, at a glance, that everything important had already been taken care of, and that the only thing I really needed to do was get dressed, grab my gear, and run out the door. This stands in utter contrast to the way that Valentine lacksadaiscally hopped on a plane, without doing any kind of advance preparation to see if his teacher would even be in town when he arrived.
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-04-23RRGNotes . . . April 23, 2018, at 12:42 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) From the Facebook event: "This week we'll be doing things a bit differently. Florence will be giving a talk on recognizing escalated behavior in social spaces and have provided these articles to act as accompanying content to their talk" ### [On Punitive Restoration](https://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-2/on-punitive-restoration/) - Within the criminal justice system, there's a tension between reducing reoffense rates and instilling greater public confidence - Improvements to one may come at the expense of the other - Citizens wildly overestimate crime rates - Blame lenient sentences
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-04-16RRGNotes . . . April 18, 2018, at 09:09 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [Words As Hidden Inferences](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/3nxs2WYDGzJbzcLMp/words-as-hidden-inferences) - Our brains automatically categorize things by similarity, regardless of the formal logical rules we set out - This is a *good* thing - The brain does not treat words as purely logical construsts - Given that, it is a mistake to rely on any system of thinking that relies on you being able to treat words as purely logical constructs - The mere act of creating a word causes your mind to create a category and thus trigger unconscious inferences
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-04-02RRGNotes . . . March 31, 2018, at 01:45 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [Making Beliefs Pay Rent (In Anticipated Experiences)](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/a7n8GdKiAZRX86T5A/making-beliefs-pay-rent-in-anticipated-experiences) - Beliefs should have consequences - Beliefs should constrain future experiences - Empiricism is the process of asking what experiences our beliefs predict and what they prohibit - When arguing about beliefs, ask about what differences in anticipated experience those beliefs would result in - If you can't find the difference, you're probably arguing about which name you should put on the label for a particular experience, not the experience itself - *My thoughts* - *This is probably one of Eliezer's best essays*
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-03-12RRGNotes . . . March 11, 2018, at 10:00 PM by quanticle: - *Given the highly allegorical nature of this particular post, I've had to modify the structure much more so than usual in order to make it work as an outline* - *I'm also not at all convinced by Val and Qiaochu\_Yuan's insistence that they're managing to sandbox all this woo they're dealing with. One of the pitfalls mentioned in this very sequence of posts is how someone can loudly protest, "This isn't touching me, this isn't touching me!" while the ideas influence their actions, to the point of causing them to join or leave religions, move states, etc.*
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-03-05RRGNotes . . . March 05, 2018, at 06:33 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) - Therefore, success in traditional schooling is a better indicator of workplace success than competency-based learning (:markdownend:)
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-02-26RRGNotes . . . February 26, 2018, at 02:58 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [Information Hazard](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Information_hazard) - Concept defined by Nick Bostrom - Defined as: "a risk that arises from the dissemination or the potential dissemination of (true) information that may cause harm or enable some agents to cause harm - Pointed out in contrast to the generally accepted principle of of information freedom - Possibility of information hazards needs to be considered when making information policies - Typology of Information Hazards - By information transfer mode - Data hazard
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-02-19RRGReadingNotes . . . February 19, 2018, at 03:25 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [In Favor of Niceness, Community and Civilization](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/23/in-favor-of-niceness-community-and-civilization/): - In order to win, do we have to embrace "politics is the mindkiller" and "arguments are soldiers"? - After all, if we're about winning, then we should be willing to do whatever it takes to win - If a fight is important, be ready to fight nasty - If politics is war, why not use bullets, both real and rhetorical? - So why not use violence? - Most of this is derivable from Hobbes - Example: Protestants vs. Catholics
Main.InTheFootstepsOfMrKurtzLivingOnTheBrinkInMobutusCongo . . . February 16, 2018, at 10:46 PM by quanticle: ## Chapter 3: Birth of the Leopard - Larry Devlin - CIA station chief in Congo - Coordinated US support for Mobutu - Seen as an example of just how far the US was willing to go to thwart Soviet influence in Africa - Devlin and Mobutu met initially in 1960 - Congo's embryonic African political establishment negotiating with the Belgians over the terms of independence - Congo's independence was particularly ill-planned
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-02-12RRGNotes . . . February 09, 2018, at 10:52 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [On The Seelie and Useelie Courts](https://lexicaldoll.wordpress.com/2017/08/09/on-the-seelie-and-unseelie-courts/) - There appear to be two kind of social reality - Type that fixates on dark manipulative aspects - unseelie - Brazenness - Manipulation - "Acceptance of the cesspool of human communication" - Type that fixates on light conversational, flow aspects - seelie - Niceness
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-01-22RRGNotes . . . January 23, 2018, at 08:59 AM by quanticle: - *What are the goals of the Kernel project, and how will we know when those goals are acheived?* - *I now have way more respect for artists like Raphael, Tiziano (Titian), Tintoretto, Lippi, etc. They're not as well known as Da Vinci, or Michaelangelo, but they were way more consistent, way more productive, and honestly, they were just as good (at art) as Da Vinci and Michaelangelo*
RationalityReadingGroup.2018-01-08RRGNotes . . . January 02, 2018, at 11:49 AM by quanticle: ** ''This strategy is often spectactularly effective, right up it fails spectacularly - the annals of history are littered with people who believed grand narratives about themselves, got other people to believe those grand narratives, and ended up ruining not just their own lives but the lives on thouands, millions, or even '''billions''' of other people''
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-01-08RRGNotes . . . December 28, 2017, at 12:28 PM by quanticle: !!! [[https://balioc.wordpress.com/2017/02/18/am-i-truly-mardukth/ | Am I Truly Mardukth?]] * Why is the state of human welfare so bad, even for those supposedly at the top of Maslow's Hierarchy? ** People have access to food and shelter, affection from loved ones, and the other sundry fruits of prosperit ** So why are they unhappy? ** ''First, these people aren't at the top of Maslow's hierarchy - the top of Maslow's hierarchy is self-actualization'' ** ''If you're so busy meeting your basic needs that you don't have the time or energy to pursue higher tiers, you're not at the top'' ** ''Finally, it's not at all clear that Maslow's Hierarchy is even a good model for human happiness'' * For some people it's true that their needs really aren't being met ** Financial situation isn't as stable as it appears ** Social situation is precarious and anxiety-producing
Site.SideBar . . . December 25, 2017, at 11:15 PM by quanticle: [deleted] * [[{*$FullName}?action=login | Log in]]
GoLangBook.Chapter01Tutorial . . . December 23, 2017, at 02:54 PM by quanticle: @@package main@@ defines a standalone program, rather than a module. Within @@package main@@, @@func main@@ defines the entry point into the program. @@import@@ tells the compiler which other packages your package relies on ->Must @@import@@ exactly the packages you need - both missing imports and unused imports will result in compiler errors
GoLangBook.GoLangBook . . . December 23, 2017, at 02:45 PM by quanticle: (:pagelist group=GoLangBook fmt=#fulltext-headers-toc order=-name :)
Main.ContainingShiiteMilitiasTheBattleForStabilityInIraq . . . December 16, 2017, at 04:31 AM by quanticle: *** The majority of fighters are actually in state-aligned militias **** ''Huh? Then how is it that the Iran-aligned militias are seen as more dominant? Is it that the Iran-aligned militias are more disciplined? Better resourced?'' * Identify and Empower Agents of Change ** Invest in bottom-up politics to limit the ability of corrupt elites and militant groups to use civil society as a patronage network ** The battle for Iraq remains rooted among Shiite communal networks, which collectively control economies worth hundreds of millions of dollars * Empower Civil Society ** Iraq has a civil society ** Civil society has been effective in mobilizing people to protest against the government ** Civil society actors that are disconnected from political parties or religious or family networks face interference, intimidation, and have weak fundraising abilities ** Civil society groups are capable of creating social and cultural norms that can restrain armed groups
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-12-18RRGNotes . . . December 15, 2017, at 03:05 PM by quanticle: [deleted] $ \mbox{scarcity} = \frac{1}{\mbox{slack}} = \sqrt{\left(\frac{1}{\mbox{spare time}}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{\mbox{spare money}}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{\mbox{spare energy}}\right)^2 + \cdots}$
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-12-11RRGNotes . . . December 10, 2017, at 03:09 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2016/04/02/021_bummer/ | The Bummer Economy]] !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2017/02/27/familiar-finance/ | Familiar Finance]] !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2017/05/09/time-well-spent/ | Time Well Spent]] !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2017/05/27/strong-men-are-socialist-reports-a-study-that-previously-reported-the-opposite/ | Strong men are socialist, reports study that previously reported the opposite]]
Main.JonathanTalksAboutPhilosophyAndNietzsche . . . December 08, 2017, at 10:49 PM by quanticle: !! Why Philosophy * All life attempts to maintain homeostasis * The more complex the life, the more complex the homeostasis that has to be maintained * People are extraordinarily complex creatures and they have to maintain an extremely complex homeostasis * In order to maintain homeostasis, there needs to be a balance between two approaches: ** Exploit existing resources ** Find new resources * Philosophy is about deciding how and when to go to new places vs. continue to exploit existing resources !! Nietzsche
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-12-04RRGNotes . . . December 01, 2017, at 12:06 AM by quanticle: * Being a "fox" shouldn't preclude you from having overarching theoretical frameworks * You have to be ready to say that those frameworks were in error and update * Having a theory doesn't lock you into being insensitive to evidence * The ideology of empiricism is harmful when it blocks you from making hypotheses * Being cognizant of the outside view is useful, but you have to make sure that you're truly comparing comparable things ** If you have a new product, it may or may not be applicable to consider related products ** Your market and customers may or may not be exactly the same as the market you're using as a baseline * In truly novel situations, the outside view usually fails * Moreover, in many ambiguous situations, it's not actually clear which "outside view" is correct - a new product or situation is often comparable to multiple reference classes * In many cases, the outside view can't compete with a good model
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-11-27RRGNotes . . . November 26, 2017, at 06:01 PM by quanticle: * "Hard Mode" defends against Goodhart's Law * Hard mode is about working for ''your'' values, even when it would be easier to go along with what society expects * Hard mode is about making yourself better, even if that results in slower improvements in externally visible metrics * Hard mode is about being true to yourself * Easy mode is analyzing systems and finding the most efficient path to your goal * Easy mode strategies can fall victim to Goodhart's Law, where you lose sight of your end goal and instead become sidetracked by the proxy metric you're trying to maximize * Easy mode lets you get to your goals faster, but playing in easy mode doesn't make you a better person * Easy mode is "selling out" * ''Both easy mode and hard mode have their uses'' ** ''You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em''
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-11-20RRGNotes . . . November 20, 2017, at 05:12 PM by quanticle: * So why don't people change their political systems to allow for more experimentation? * Political systems are defined by the same inadequate Nash equilibria as everything else * First-past-the-post-voting is a result of the same kind of inadequate equilibrium as everything else ** ''Eliezer is missing two big things: complexity and legitimacy'' ** ''Condorcet voting may have better outcomes, but those outcomes will be harder to explain, and, as a result, will be less legitimate'' ** ''Heck, the Electoral College is bad enough in this regard, even though it serves an arguably important check on the power of large, urbanized states like New York and California'' * Another example of inadequate equilibria is Overton Windows ** Everyone is ready to talk about a particular change ** But because no one has started talking about it, everyone feels like it's taboo ** Then someone unusually brave starts talking about it and it opens up the field to it being a legitimate topic
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-11-13RRGNotes . . . November 11, 2017, at 03:23 PM by quanticle: !!! [[http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/ | All in All, Another Brick in the Motte]] !!! [[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2015/01/on-exposing-hypocrisy.html | On Exposing Hypocrisy]] !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/k12/be_comfortable_with_hypocrisy/ | Be Comfortable With Hypocrisy]] !!! [[https://nothingismere.com/2015/09/16/ditch-the-word-hypocrite/ | Ditch The Word Hypocrite]]
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-11-06RRGNotes . . . November 03, 2017, at 08:37 PM by quanticle: !!! [[http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/27/on-types-of-typologies/ | On Types of Typologies]] * Meyers-Briggs Type indicator ** It's inconsistently applied and unscientific ** Yet, Scott consistently recognizes himself in the description of INTJ * We can reconcile "Meyers-Briggs is unscientific" with "Meyers-Briggs is a useful tool" * Meyers and Briggs had no scientific basis on which to declare that there were four factors of personality - just armchair observations and anecdotes * Factor analysis shows that there are actually 5 personality traits, only one of which corresponds to Meyers-Briggs * Meyers-Briggs doesn't need to give new information in order to be useful * Meyers-Briggs can be useful for drawing conclusions in the same way that nationality can be ** ''Isn't that just plain stereotyping''
Main.2017ItalyTrip . . . November 03, 2017, at 06:51 AM by quanticle: !! Milan * [[https://www.museoalfaromeo.com/en-us/Pages/MuseoStoricoAlfaRomeo.aspx | Alfa Romeo museum]] !! Maranello * [[https://musei.ferrari.com/en/maranello | Ferrari Museum]]
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-09-25RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:59 AM by quanticle: !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/2c/a_sense_that_more_is_possible/ | A Sense That More Is Possible]] * Why should anyone be motivated to learn rationality? * Rationalists don't seem to be any more happy or successful than non-rationalists * There ought to be a discipline of cognition that that makes its students visibly more competent and formidable * But we don't see that in the real world * We haven't gotten together and systematized our skills * How do you systematically test rationality programs and verify that they're making people more rational? * Why aren't rationalists surrounded by a "visible aura of formidability"? ** Less systematic training ** More difficult to verify that you're being rational
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-10-02RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:58 AM by quanticle: !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/42/tolerate_tolerance/ | Tolerate Tolerance]] * One of the likely characteristics of someone who is a rationalist is a lower than usual tolerance for flaws in reasoning * Even if we can't be nice to idiots, we should tolerate those who are being nice to idiots * Don't punish non-punishers * Only judge people for the mistakes they make, not the mistakes they tolerate others making !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/5j/your_price_for_joining/ | Your Price For Joining]] * People in the atheist/libertarian/technophile cluster set their joining prices too high * The group doesn't have to be perfect for you to join and make a positive difference by taking part ** ''And this is why rationalists should get involved in politics''
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-10-09RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:57 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://palegreendot.net/assets/2017-10-09/postmodernism_for_rationalists.pdf | Postmodernism for rationalists]]
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-10-16RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:56 AM by quanticle: !!! [[http://www.roberttrivers.com/Robert_Trivers/Publications_files/T%26Newton1982article-2.pdf | The Crash of Flight 90: Doomed by Self Deception?]] * Air Florida Flight 90 crashed into a bridge on takeoff from Washington National Airport, killing 78 * Pilots failed to turn on engine anti-icing systems, causing loss of thrust * Pilots positioned plane behind another jet in a mistaken attempt to de-ice that may have made the icing problem worse * Engine pressure ratio indicator showed normal thrust, contradicting readings from other systems * Co-pilot pointed out discrepancy, but pilot proceeded with takeoff anyway, leading to crash * The accident was the result of a pattern of self-deception on the part of the captain, and insufficient forcefulness by the first-officer in correcting that self-deception * This can be seen in pilot's lack of response to the co-pilot's prompts * Pilot doesn't respond to co-pilot until the plane is already falling * My reactions:
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-10-23RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:55 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/xQ9tMMk3RArodLtDq/intellectual-progress-inside-and-outside-academia | Intellectual Progress Inside and Outside Academia]] * Initial Thread: ** Wei Dai *** Discussion is about what is preventing academia from recognizing certain steps in intellectual progress **** Bitcoin **** TDT/UDT *** Non-academics came up with both of these things; why didn't academia get there first? ** Eliezer Yudkowsky *** Academic system doesn't promote "real work" getting done **** ''And MIRI does?''
RationalityReadingGroup.2017-10-30RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:53 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://meteuphoric.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/for-signaling-part-i/ | For Signalling (Part 1)]] * Signalling is about showing off * The whole point of signalling is to have costs * Wearing an embarrassing T-shirt is a refusal to signal ** ''False: Wearing an embarrassing T-shirt is a signal that you don't care about wearing embarrassing T-shirts'' * Signalling attempts to ensure honest communication: ** Signalling is meant to be costly for liars ** Driver's licenses - signal that you're qualified to drive ** Job market - potential employees have to signal that they're qualified for the position that they're interviewing for *** Job market signalling is costly for everyone, even people who are qualified
Category.GroupFooter . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:42 AM by quanticle: (:pagelist link={*$FullName} list=normal fmt=#bygroup-titlespaced:)
Main.ReviewOfKillAllNormies . . . October 24, 2017, at 08:03 AM by quanticle: Andrea Nagle's ''Kill All Normies: Online Culture Wars from 4Chan and Tumblr to Trump and the Alt-Right'' looks at the rise of Trump and the alt-right from the perspective of online social media over the period from about 2010 to 2017. Her claim is that the rise of Trump can be explained as a backlash against in increasingly identitarian leftist online culture, typified by the sort of writing you see on Tumblr. She traverses the main haunts of both the online (alt-)right and the online left, catalogues their views and
Main.DirectionsToPostOffice . . . October 23, 2017, at 05:16 PM by quanticle: !! Directions to Post Office * Turn R on SE 26th St * Turn L on Richards Rd * Turn L on Lake Hills Connector * Cross SE 8th St. * Cross NE 4th St. * Turn R on NE 8th St. * Cross 120th Ave NE * Turn L on 124th Ave NE * Post office is on L
Main.Directions . . . October 23, 2017, at 05:13 PM by quanticle: * [[Directions to Henry's Taiwan]] * [[Directions to Post Office]]
Main.Bookmarks . . . October 23, 2017, at 02:59 PM by quanticle: * [[https://web.archive.org/web/20171023185645/https://weblogs.asp.net/alex_papadimoulis/408925 | On asking for the right level of advice]] * [[https://web.archive.org/web/20171023185844/http://www.jdpressman.com/2017/07/25/tumblrism-the-injustice-league.html | Tumblrism: The Injustice League]]
Main.GenderList . . . October 22, 2017, at 08:50 PM by quanticle: And an [[https://web.archive.org/web/20171023005017/https://vapebleach.tumblr.com/post/146468134070/i-have-compiled-a-list-of-every-gender-tumblr | an even bigger list]], unfortunately without definitions
Main.PMWikiTips . . . October 20, 2017, at 10:00 PM by quanticle: *** @@[= [[Main/Foo/Bar]]@@ is invalid =]
Main.RationalityReadingGroup . . . October 19, 2017, at 12:53 AM by quanticle: (:pagelist group=RationalityReadingGroup fmt=#fulltext-headers-toc order=-name :)
Main.ConfiguringIPAddressesManuallyOnLinux . . . October 15, 2017, at 05:42 PM by quanticle: To configure IP addresses manually: @@sudo ifconfig <interface> <IP address> netmask <subnet mask>@@ So, for example: @@sudo ifconfig eth1 172.16.64.2 netmask 255.255.192.0@@
Main.DirectionsToCarProsHyundai . . . September 27, 2017, at 05:21 PM by quanticle: !! Address 201 7th St\ Renton, WA 98057 !! Directions to Car Pros * Turn R on SE 26th St * Turn R on Richards Rd * Turn L on Coal Creek Pkwy SE * Cross Forest Dr * Cross SE May Valley Rd * Cross Hwy 900/NE Sunset Blvd
Main.Leviathan . . . September 22, 2017, at 05:28 PM by quanticle: the missile hit, the warhead flashed \ and I thought the beast was slain \ But with grinding gears and screaming servos \ Leviathan rose again
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