Russia Can Afford To Take A Beating In Ukraine
Source: War on the Rocks
- Russian forces are suffering more than 400,000 casualties a year in Ukraine
- Is this sustainable? Unfortunately yes
- This explains President Putin's approach to peace talks in Istanbul; Putin believes that time is on his side
- Russian force replenishment through 2024 has been more effective than many predicted
- NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe Christopher Cavioli observed that the current Russian military is about 15% larger than it was when it invaded Ukraine
- Russia's advantage in overall population means that Russian can suffer three times as many losses as Ukraine can for the same demographic impact
- Russia also holds an advantage in artillery
- Russian production of artillery shells in 2024 was roughly 250,000 per month
- This is in comparison to roughly 30,000 shells per month produced by the US and another 83,000 shells per month produced by European countries aiding Ukraine
- Combined US and EU artillery shell production will only surpass Russian production in 2026, following current trends
- This is assuming that Donald Trump will continue to support Ukraine, which is a questionable assumption
- Russia still has tanks in storage, and is able to produce approximately 100 new tanks each month
- Russia can sustain its tank losses at least through 2026
- In the long term, there are questions about the sustainability of Russia's military Keynesianism
- However, Russian spending on defense, as a proportion of GDP, is nowhere near its late-Cold War Soviet peak
- The Russian military and economy will likely continue to "muddle along", producing good enough systems in good enough numbers to keep the war going
