How To Solve The Nord Stream 2 Dilemma

Russia is about to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline across the Baltic Sea to Germany
Congress and the Washington foreign policy establishment are opposed
However, the Biden administration does not want to pick a fight with the Merkel administration in Berlin
On February 18, the Biden administration announced that it was sanctioning the ship laying the pipeline and its owners
These sanctions will probably have no effect, and will probably not mollify Congressional proponents of a tougher line on Nord Stream 2
When completed, Nord Stream 2 will bring up to 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year from Russia to Germany
Total German consumption of natural gas: 95 billion cubic meters
Nord Stream 2 can bring a significant fraction of Germany's total gas consumption

A Geopolitical or Commercial Project?

Americans and Europeans outside of Germany see Nord Stream 2 as a geopolitical project
If the goal was just to get more gas into Germany, Germany could have paid Ukraine to upgrade its pipelines at a far lower cost than what it paid for Nord Stream 2
Nord Stream 2 is not an adjunct to Ukrainian pipelines, it is a replacement for them
From Moscow's perspective, the point of Nord Stream 2 is to give Russian gas a route into Europe that does not involve crossing Ukraine
Because of this, the US Congress has a bipartisan consensus in favor of imposing sanctions on all the entities, German and Russian, involved with Nord Stream 2
In a February 17th letter to the Biden administration Congress stated that it stands read to work with the Biden administration to counter Russian influence by working to ensure that Nord Stream 2 is never completed

Germany hopes to persuade the US that it can "safely" receive gas without becoming overly subject to Russian influence
- Regulatory mechanisms to block Russian market manipulation
- Build terminals to accept American LNG exports
- Set out red lines that would shut down Nord Stream 2 if Russia was found to be in violation
These measures are unlikely to mollify Congress
- Regulatory mechanisms make sense, but how would they work in practice?
- American LNG is unlikely to ever be economically competitive with gas from Nord Stream 2 simply because of the cost differential between pipeline transport and shipping
Some in the German government have proposed a moratorium
- Two variants
  - Impose a moratorium now
  - Finish the pipeline and impose a moratorium on starting gas flow through the pipeline until American, Ukrainian and Polish concerns are satisfied
- The second variant is unlikely to be acceptable in the United States -- what prevents Germany and Russia from bilaterally starting gas deliveries if moratorium talks become deadlocked?

What if Germany insisted that Russia commit to increasing the amount of gas that it ships through Ukraine
Tangible benefit to Ukraine
Is likely to mollify Congress

But why would Russia agree to this?
From the Russian perspective, the entire point of Nord Stream 2 is to reduce dependence on Ukrainian gas transit
Furthermore, this proposed solution overlooks the biggest problem with any kind of agreement with Russia, which is that Russia lies
What happens when Russia agrees to increase transit through Ukraine, but then doesn't actually do so?
What will the consequences for Russia be?
How will those consequences be enforced?
Will a future German government have the political will to declare Russia in abrogation of its agreements and begin the enforcement process?
Stop pretending that Russia is a liberal democracy that actually abides by commitments in the absence of inspection and enforcement mechanisms