Tangled Up in Red
- 3 constants to UK/EU Brexit negotiations
- UK makes speeches; EU drafts agreements
- Clock is ticking - EU has the better bargaining position
- EU is also more unified and has a better idea of what it wants out of the negotiations
- Therefore, whatever is agreed to pretty much resembles the EU drafts
- EU just published a draft FTA framework
- Given logic above, final FTA framework will be close to the draft
- FTA framework is compatible with Theresa May's "red lines"
- No membership in customs union
- No membership in Single Market for Goods
- Does this mean that the EU is willing to compromise on the Ireland/Northern Ireland border?
- Note that FTA document is predicated on "all commitments undertaken so far [being] respected in full"
- This includes the Ireland border agreement
- Irish border agreement lays out 3 options
- Trade agreement between UK and EU that is so strong, no physical border is needed
- Technological solution
- Northern Ireland staying in customs union, while rest of UK leaves
- Option 2 is wishful thinking - there is no level of technology that will allow the fulfillment of border checks while being "invisible"
- The FTA framework takes Option 1 off the table - any agreement compatible with Ms. May's "red lines" will require border checks
- So Northern Ireland has to remain in the customs union with the EU
- But this implies a customs border between two parts of the UK!
- Unacceptable to many Conservative MPs
- Totally unacceptable to DUP
- So, we are at yet another impasse
- Could have been solved if Conservative MPs had voted for UK to stay in customs union
- Staying in the customs union was the right thing to do anyway
- Get better deals as part of EU customs union than outside of it
- This is especially true with Donald Trump raising tariffs
- When the UK government announces that the choice is between staying in the customs union and having a border between the UK and Northern Ireland, Brexiteers will rebel
- Theresa May will have to somehow convince them that the FTA does not commit the UK to staying in the customs union… when it very clearly does
- This was May's fault for declaring those red lines in the first place
