2022-10-31 Southwards and Eastward Pressure on Russian Forces

Panelists

Ukrainian forces are in for a hard fight
Russians have reinforced their troops with mobilized conscripts
Fairly high density of forces
The Russian position is precarious but there are no sights that they are making plans to abandon the area west of the Dnipro
Russian logistics have been disrupted, but Russian forces still have sufficient ammunition and supplies to continue the fight
Ukrainians are prioritizing force preservation
- Trying to make gains without taking unnecessary losses
- Fight smart by using their advantages in long-range precision-guided artillery
The Ukrainian estimate that they can press the Russians out of their foothold west of the Dnipro is probably optimistic
Very different situation from Kharkiv/Luhansk
The infrastructure in this area isn't great and wasn't great even before the war
Overly optimistic analyses are not helpful
Russia isn't fighting dumb — Russian forces are developing secondary and tertiary defensive fortifications and establishing lines of retreat

Wagner's "perpetual grind" against Bakhmut has suffered badly
Ukraine was able to counterattack in order to stabilize the situation
Pointless offensive — the offensive makes no sense after the Russian defeat in Lyman and Izyum
The goal of this offensive appears to be to make a case for Prigozhin as Minister of Defense by showing that only Wagner is capable of making forward progress in Ukraine

Ukraine has brought under fire the main road linking the two Russian hubs at Kreminna and Svatove
Series of pitched battles as Ukrainians try to push on Svatove and the Russians counterattack near Kreminna
Ukrainian offensive operations hampered by weather

Not a high likelihood of Belarus launching an attack on Ukraine
Belarussian military not capable of operating on its own — relies on Russia for support and logistics
No real objective for Belarus to attack; they don't have the combat power to drive on Kyiv
However, Belarus could possibly do some kind of raiding attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure targets

Russian attacks are having an effect
Ukrainian cities are often dark at night because of electricity conservation
Ukrainians are able to fix damage relatively quickly for now
Russian goal appears to be wear down the Ukrainian ability to wear down the Ukrainian ability to repair and rebuild their infrastructure with a sustained bombing/loitering-munition campaign
There is a clear sense that the people programming these loitering munitions know what they're trying to hit
Russian efforts at infrastructure destruction might become more effective if Russia gets Iranian ballistic missiles

While it's possible that Russia has rigged the dam with explosives, it would be counterproductive for Russia to blow the dam
The eastern side of Kherson Oblast, which Russia controls, is lower ground than the western side
Russia would be flooding its own troops
Blowing the dam might also damage the canal that takes water to Crimea
If Russia does blow the damage, it would be an act of desperation

Large differences in training and equipment for newly mobilized troops
Some get 0 days of training, some get up to 30 days
Some units get obsolete T-62s, others get modern T-90s
Hard to build a consolidate picture of the newly mobilized conscripts
Numbers appear to be sizeable — 200,000 is plausible
However, it's unlikely that the Russians have mobilized the 300,000 troops they've claimed to have mobilized
Ukrainians are taking the threat seriously
The real impact of mobilization will probably be seen in 3-4 months
A sufficient number of mobilized personnel allows Russia to rotate units and build an operational reserve

Not all that meaningful
Russians are just trying to get a reaction out of us
No practical use for a dirty bomb for either side
Kofman doesn't rate the probability of a Russian false-flag dirty bomb very highly
A bigger concern is the status of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
In the event of a successful Ukrainian offensive in that region, Russian leadership may be tempted to sabotage the reactors