The Future Combat Air System and the EU's Strategic Acquisition Malaise

Article link: https://cepa.org/the-future-combat-air-system-and-the-eus-strategic-autonomy-malaise/

The Future Combat Air System was once hailed by President Macron as a "deep revolution" European defense cooperation
This system is now in trouble due to familiar disagreements between France and Germany over IP and workshare
FCAS woes illustrate the roadblocks on the EU's path towards strategic autonomy
EU needs a greater level of autonomy in defense as the US turns towards the Indo-Pacific
Work on the FCAS began in 2017
- Brexit
- Election of Donald Trump
- Sense in Europe that it couldn't rely on the two traditional Atlantic powers of the United States and United Kingdom to provide for European defense
FCAS's goal was to create a single replacement for the competing Dassault Rafale and EuroFighter
- Reduce intra-EU competition
- Harmonize defense planning
- Increase interoperability among member states
- Improve the EU's ability to defend itself without relying on the US or UK
- But why is reduced competition a worthwhile goal?
- The lesson of the F-35 program in the US is that if your One Big System runs into delays or doesn't perform as well as expected, you end up in a situation where you have no good choices
- Moreover, why is the EU even investing in another generation of manned aircraft? Other mid-tier powers (like Australia) are already transitioning towards manned-unmanned teaming, with legacy manned systems acting as control nodes for more modern unmanned systems
One of the goals that the FCAS was supposed to drive was consolidation of the EU's defense-industrial base
- Former European Defense Agency Chief Jorge Domecq linked consolidation with strategic autonomy
- Why do strategic autonomy and consolidation have to be linked?
- In fact, the progression of the US defense-industrial base argues for the opposite — that robust competition is key for having a healthy defense-industrial base
- It is possible to have cooperation without consolidation
- The FCAS is an example of a push towards greater cooperation in defense procurement in Europe
However, progress has reached a familiar impasse
- February 2021: negotiations for the next phase of FCAS development fell through
- Development is now stalled indefinitely
- Two key sticking points
  - Division of labor
  - Intellectual property
- Dassault wants 50% of the total workshare of the FCAS program
- Airbus wants full access to Dassault's technology
- It's weird that this article is describing Airbus as German, when Airbus is almost as French as it is German
- Is the FCAS really a European problem or is it a problem between two French defense contractors who can't get along
- The situation has reached such an impasse that Dassault and Airbus are reportedly considering building their own independent technology demonstrator aircraft
This dispute is emblematic of a lack of trust between Berlin and Paris
- Some Germans think that the French want to build a French aircraft with German money
- Some French think that the Germans want to build a German aircraft with French technology
- Given how much of a fiasco the EuroFighter program was, can you really blame them?
The lack of progress towards consolidation is pervasive across EU
Many initiatives, such as PESCO are little more than words on paper, without any real backing or institutional support from EU member states
High degree of fragmentation in defense acquisition, with associated inefficiencies
Until this fragmentation issue is resolved, strategic autonomy will remain out of reach
FCAS may yet become successful
- The total project cost is projected to be at least €100 bn.
- Many argue that this project is "too big to fail" and that despite roadblocks, the system will get built
- I find it highly dubious that the article is conflating completion with success
- Of course, given how the Russians' stealth fighter is going, maybe that's not an unreasonable standard after all
If the French and Germans can overcome their mistrust and cooperate, the FCAS can become a template for future EU-wide defense cooperation
The failure of the FCAS would represent a significant blow to future armament cooperation efforts
The EU needs to get out of the "one-big-program" mindset
Shift towards open standards and interoperability, rather than forcing highly complex one-size-fits-all systems onto nations that don't want them
Even the US military is starting to shift towards collections of smaller, cheaper, lighter, interoperable systems with its new frigate and bomber programs
Why is it so bad if the France and Germany have their own fighter programs if the planes can share data and fire the same weapons?