Recent Changes

2019-02-11Notes . . . February 11, 2019, at 02:14 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [How Civilizations Fall: A Theory of Catabolic Collapse](https://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf) #### Introduction - The collapse of complex human societies is a poorly understood phenomenon - Most proposed explanations fail to describe causative mechanisms - Rely on ad-hoc hypotheses based upon the specifics of the civilization
2019-02-04Notes . . . February 04, 2019, at 01:21 PM by quanticle: - *Heck, not even neoreactionaries – most people would agree that criminals, for example, have given up their right to be free* - We have unlimited resources - *There's a bit of confusion going on here between charities and cause areas* - *A charity devoted to the arts might reach ten times fewer people than AMF, but that's because the arts charity is in a different cause area* - *If you're going to compare charities, and claim that the best charities reach tens or hundreds of times as many people as a randomly chosen charity, you need to make sure that you're comparing a randomly chosen charity to the best charity within that cause area* - Utilitarianism is a collection of philosophical positions which have 5 major characteristics in common - Utilitarianism is the doctrine that the morally right thing to do is that which maximizes <span class="underline">Utility</span> - Characteristics utilitarianism - Universalism - Moral principles are universal
2019-01-28Notes . . . January 29, 2019, at 01:22 AM by quanticle: ### [The Tower](https://hotelconcierge.tumblr.com/post/162571849189/the-tower) #### Part I #### Part II #### Part III #### Part IV
2018-07-23Notes . . . July 24, 2018, at 03:57 AM by quanticle: Added notes for 2018-07-23 Meeting
2018-07-16RRGNotes . . . July 15, 2018, at 09:07 PM by quanticle: Fixed spelling errors
2018-07-09RRGNotes . . . July 15, 2018, at 08:47 PM by quanticle: Added notes for 2018-07-09 meeting
2018-07-02RRGNotes . . . July 04, 2018, at 09:12 PM by quanticle: Fixed markdown error
2018-06-25RRGNotes . . . June 29, 2018, at 11:36 PM by quanticle: Fixed headings
2018-04-23RRGNotes . . . April 23, 2018, at 12:42 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) From the Facebook event: "This week we'll be doing things a bit differently. Florence will be giving a talk on recognizing escalated behavior in social spaces and have provided these articles to act as accompanying content to their talk" ### [On Punitive Restoration](https://quarterly.demos.co.uk/article/issue-2/on-punitive-restoration/) - Within the criminal justice system, there's a tension between reducing reoffense rates and instilling greater public confidence - Improvements to one may come at the expense of the other - Citizens wildly overestimate crime rates - Blame lenient sentences
2018-04-16RRGNotes . . . April 18, 2018, at 09:09 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [Words As Hidden Inferences](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/3nxs2WYDGzJbzcLMp/words-as-hidden-inferences) - Our brains automatically categorize things by similarity, regardless of the formal logical rules we set out - This is a *good* thing - The brain does not treat words as purely logical construsts - Given that, it is a mistake to rely on any system of thinking that relies on you being able to treat words as purely logical constructs - The mere act of creating a word causes your mind to create a category and thus trigger unconscious inferences
2018-04-09RRGNotes . . . April 09, 2018, at 01:30 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) (:markdownend:)
2018-04-02RRGNotes . . . March 31, 2018, at 01:45 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [Making Beliefs Pay Rent (In Anticipated Experiences)](https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/a7n8GdKiAZRX86T5A/making-beliefs-pay-rent-in-anticipated-experiences) - Beliefs should have consequences - Beliefs should constrain future experiences - Empiricism is the process of asking what experiences our beliefs predict and what they prohibit - When arguing about beliefs, ask about what differences in anticipated experience those beliefs would result in - If you can't find the difference, you're probably arguing about which name you should put on the label for a particular experience, not the experience itself - *My thoughts* - *This is probably one of Eliezer's best essays*
2018-03-26RRGNotes . . . March 25, 2018, at 12:47 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) (:markdownend:)
2018-03-19RRGNotes . . . March 19, 2018, at 08:07 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) (:markdownend:)
2018-03-12RRGNotes . . . March 11, 2018, at 10:00 PM by quanticle: - *Given the highly allegorical nature of this particular post, I've had to modify the structure much more so than usual in order to make it work as an outline* - *I'm also not at all convinced by Val and Qiaochu\_Yuan's insistence that they're managing to sandbox all this woo they're dealing with. One of the pitfalls mentioned in this very sequence of posts is how someone can loudly protest, "This isn't touching me, this isn't touching me!" while the ideas influence their actions, to the point of causing them to join or leave religions, move states, etc.*
2018-03-05RRGNotes . . . March 05, 2018, at 06:33 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) - Therefore, success in traditional schooling is a better indicator of workplace success than competency-based learning (:markdownend:)
2018-02-26RRGNotes . . . February 26, 2018, at 02:58 AM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [Information Hazard](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Information_hazard) - Concept defined by Nick Bostrom - Defined as: "a risk that arises from the dissemination or the potential dissemination of (true) information that may cause harm or enable some agents to cause harm - Pointed out in contrast to the generally accepted principle of of information freedom - Possibility of information hazards needs to be considered when making information policies - Typology of Information Hazards - By information transfer mode - Data hazard
2018-02-19RRGReadingNotes . . . February 19, 2018, at 03:25 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [In Favor of Niceness, Community and Civilization](http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/02/23/in-favor-of-niceness-community-and-civilization/): - In order to win, do we have to embrace "politics is the mindkiller" and "arguments are soldiers"? - After all, if we're about winning, then we should be willing to do whatever it takes to win - If a fight is important, be ready to fight nasty - If politics is war, why not use bullets, both real and rhetorical? - So why not use violence? - Most of this is derivable from Hobbes - Example: Protestants vs. Catholics
2018-02-12RRGNotes . . . February 09, 2018, at 10:52 PM by quanticle: (:markdown:) ### [On The Seelie and Useelie Courts](https://lexicaldoll.wordpress.com/2017/08/09/on-the-seelie-and-unseelie-courts/) - There appear to be two kind of social reality - Type that fixates on dark manipulative aspects - unseelie - Brazenness - Manipulation - "Acceptance of the cesspool of human communication" - Type that fixates on light conversational, flow aspects - seelie - Niceness
2018-02-05RRGNotes . . . February 05, 2018, at 05:39 AM by quanticle: - Dualist counterculture - religious right - wanted to make all boundaries absolute
2018-01-29RRGNotes . . . January 28, 2018, at 09:49 PM by quanticle: (:markdownend:)
2018-01-22RRGNotes . . . January 23, 2018, at 08:59 AM by quanticle: - *What are the goals of the Kernel project, and how will we know when those goals are acheived?* - *I now have way more respect for artists like Raphael, Tiziano (Titian), Tintoretto, Lippi, etc. They're not as well known as Da Vinci, or Michaelangelo, but they were way more consistent, way more productive, and honestly, they were just as good (at art) as Da Vinci and Michaelangelo*
2018-01-08RRGNotes . . . January 02, 2018, at 11:49 AM by quanticle: ** ''This strategy is often spectactularly effective, right up it fails spectacularly - the annals of history are littered with people who believed grand narratives about themselves, got other people to believe those grand narratives, and ended up ruining not just their own lives but the lives on thouands, millions, or even '''billions''' of other people''
2017-01-08RRGNotes . . . December 28, 2017, at 12:28 PM by quanticle: !!! [[https://balioc.wordpress.com/2017/02/18/am-i-truly-mardukth/ | Am I Truly Mardukth?]] * Why is the state of human welfare so bad, even for those supposedly at the top of Maslow's Hierarchy? ** People have access to food and shelter, affection from loved ones, and the other sundry fruits of prosperit ** So why are they unhappy? ** ''First, these people aren't at the top of Maslow's hierarchy - the top of Maslow's hierarchy is self-actualization'' ** ''If you're so busy meeting your basic needs that you don't have the time or energy to pursue higher tiers, you're not at the top'' ** ''Finally, it's not at all clear that Maslow's Hierarchy is even a good model for human happiness'' * For some people it's true that their needs really aren't being met ** Financial situation isn't as stable as it appears ** Social situation is precarious and anxiety-producing
2017-12-18RRGNotes . . . December 15, 2017, at 03:05 PM by quanticle: [deleted] $ \mbox{scarcity} = \frac{1}{\mbox{slack}} = \sqrt{\left(\frac{1}{\mbox{spare time}}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{\mbox{spare money}}\right)^2 + \left(\frac{1}{\mbox{spare energy}}\right)^2 + \cdots}$
RecentUploads . . . December 14, 2017, at 03:49 PM quanticle : 2017-12-18RRGNotes/slack_eqn.svg (27875 bytes)
2017-12-11RRGNotes . . . December 10, 2017, at 03:09 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2016/04/02/021_bummer/ | The Bummer Economy]] !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2017/02/27/familiar-finance/ | Familiar Finance]] !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2017/05/09/time-well-spent/ | Time Well Spent]] !!! [[https://putanumonit.com/2017/05/27/strong-men-are-socialist-reports-a-study-that-previously-reported-the-opposite/ | Strong men are socialist, reports study that previously reported the opposite]]
2017-12-04RRGNotes . . . December 01, 2017, at 12:06 AM by quanticle: * Being a "fox" shouldn't preclude you from having overarching theoretical frameworks * You have to be ready to say that those frameworks were in error and update * Having a theory doesn't lock you into being insensitive to evidence * The ideology of empiricism is harmful when it blocks you from making hypotheses * Being cognizant of the outside view is useful, but you have to make sure that you're truly comparing comparable things ** If you have a new product, it may or may not be applicable to consider related products ** Your market and customers may or may not be exactly the same as the market you're using as a baseline * In truly novel situations, the outside view usually fails * Moreover, in many ambiguous situations, it's not actually clear which "outside view" is correct - a new product or situation is often comparable to multiple reference classes * In many cases, the outside view can't compete with a good model
2017-11-27RRGNotes . . . November 26, 2017, at 06:01 PM by quanticle: * "Hard Mode" defends against Goodhart's Law * Hard mode is about working for ''your'' values, even when it would be easier to go along with what society expects * Hard mode is about making yourself better, even if that results in slower improvements in externally visible metrics * Hard mode is about being true to yourself * Easy mode is analyzing systems and finding the most efficient path to your goal * Easy mode strategies can fall victim to Goodhart's Law, where you lose sight of your end goal and instead become sidetracked by the proxy metric you're trying to maximize * Easy mode lets you get to your goals faster, but playing in easy mode doesn't make you a better person * Easy mode is "selling out" * ''Both easy mode and hard mode have their uses'' ** ''You gotta know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em''
2017-11-20RRGNotes . . . November 20, 2017, at 05:12 PM by quanticle: * So why don't people change their political systems to allow for more experimentation? * Political systems are defined by the same inadequate Nash equilibria as everything else * First-past-the-post-voting is a result of the same kind of inadequate equilibrium as everything else ** ''Eliezer is missing two big things: complexity and legitimacy'' ** ''Condorcet voting may have better outcomes, but those outcomes will be harder to explain, and, as a result, will be less legitimate'' ** ''Heck, the Electoral College is bad enough in this regard, even though it serves an arguably important check on the power of large, urbanized states like New York and California'' * Another example of inadequate equilibria is Overton Windows ** Everyone is ready to talk about a particular change ** But because no one has started talking about it, everyone feels like it's taboo ** Then someone unusually brave starts talking about it and it opens up the field to it being a legitimate topic
2017-11-13RRGNotes . . . November 11, 2017, at 03:23 PM by quanticle: !!! [[http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/11/03/all-in-all-another-brick-in-the-motte/ | All in All, Another Brick in the Motte]] !!! [[http://www.overcomingbias.com/2015/01/on-exposing-hypocrisy.html | On Exposing Hypocrisy]] !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/k12/be_comfortable_with_hypocrisy/ | Be Comfortable With Hypocrisy]] !!! [[https://nothingismere.com/2015/09/16/ditch-the-word-hypocrite/ | Ditch The Word Hypocrite]]
2017-11-06RRGNotes . . . November 03, 2017, at 08:37 PM by quanticle: !!! [[http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/05/27/on-types-of-typologies/ | On Types of Typologies]] * Meyers-Briggs Type indicator ** It's inconsistently applied and unscientific ** Yet, Scott consistently recognizes himself in the description of INTJ * We can reconcile "Meyers-Briggs is unscientific" with "Meyers-Briggs is a useful tool" * Meyers and Briggs had no scientific basis on which to declare that there were four factors of personality - just armchair observations and anecdotes * Factor analysis shows that there are actually 5 personality traits, only one of which corresponds to Meyers-Briggs * Meyers-Briggs doesn't need to give new information in order to be useful * Meyers-Briggs can be useful for drawing conclusions in the same way that nationality can be ** ''Isn't that just plain stereotyping''
2017-09-25RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:59 AM by quanticle: !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/2c/a_sense_that_more_is_possible/ | A Sense That More Is Possible]] * Why should anyone be motivated to learn rationality? * Rationalists don't seem to be any more happy or successful than non-rationalists * There ought to be a discipline of cognition that that makes its students visibly more competent and formidable * But we don't see that in the real world * We haven't gotten together and systematized our skills * How do you systematically test rationality programs and verify that they're making people more rational? * Why aren't rationalists surrounded by a "visible aura of formidability"? ** Less systematic training ** More difficult to verify that you're being rational
2017-10-02RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:58 AM by quanticle: !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/42/tolerate_tolerance/ | Tolerate Tolerance]] * One of the likely characteristics of someone who is a rationalist is a lower than usual tolerance for flaws in reasoning * Even if we can't be nice to idiots, we should tolerate those who are being nice to idiots * Don't punish non-punishers * Only judge people for the mistakes they make, not the mistakes they tolerate others making !!! [[http://lesswrong.com/lw/5j/your_price_for_joining/ | Your Price For Joining]] * People in the atheist/libertarian/technophile cluster set their joining prices too high * The group doesn't have to be perfect for you to join and make a positive difference by taking part ** ''And this is why rationalists should get involved in politics''
2017-10-09RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:57 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://palegreendot.net/assets/2017-10-09/postmodernism_for_rationalists.pdf | Postmodernism for rationalists]]
2017-10-16RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:56 AM by quanticle: !!! [[http://www.roberttrivers.com/Robert_Trivers/Publications_files/T%26Newton1982article-2.pdf | The Crash of Flight 90: Doomed by Self Deception?]] * Air Florida Flight 90 crashed into a bridge on takeoff from Washington National Airport, killing 78 * Pilots failed to turn on engine anti-icing systems, causing loss of thrust * Pilots positioned plane behind another jet in a mistaken attempt to de-ice that may have made the icing problem worse * Engine pressure ratio indicator showed normal thrust, contradicting readings from other systems * Co-pilot pointed out discrepancy, but pilot proceeded with takeoff anyway, leading to crash * The accident was the result of a pattern of self-deception on the part of the captain, and insufficient forcefulness by the first-officer in correcting that self-deception * This can be seen in pilot's lack of response to the co-pilot's prompts * Pilot doesn't respond to co-pilot until the plane is already falling * My reactions:
2017-10-23RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:55 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://www.lesserwrong.com/posts/xQ9tMMk3RArodLtDq/intellectual-progress-inside-and-outside-academia | Intellectual Progress Inside and Outside Academia]] * Initial Thread: ** Wei Dai *** Discussion is about what is preventing academia from recognizing certain steps in intellectual progress **** Bitcoin **** TDT/UDT *** Non-academics came up with both of these things; why didn't academia get there first? ** Eliezer Yudkowsky *** Academic system doesn't promote "real work" getting done **** ''And MIRI does?''
2017-10-30RRGNotes . . . October 31, 2017, at 03:53 AM by quanticle: !!! [[https://meteuphoric.wordpress.com/2017/09/27/for-signaling-part-i/ | For Signalling (Part 1)]] * Signalling is about showing off * The whole point of signalling is to have costs * Wearing an embarrassing T-shirt is a refusal to signal ** ''False: Wearing an embarrassing T-shirt is a signal that you don't care about wearing embarrassing T-shirts'' * Signalling attempts to ensure honest communication: ** Signalling is meant to be costly for liars ** Driver's licenses - signal that you're qualified to drive ** Job market - potential employees have to signal that they're qualified for the position that they're interviewing for *** Job market signalling is costly for everyone, even people who are qualified